#Gold is supposed to be a safe haven in times like this.
Simple: The dollar is getting stronger. Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions.
When the dollar rises, gold tends to fall, regardless of geopolitics.
So why is the dollar rising?
Because of interest rates.
Rising energy/oil prices (from Middle East tensions) are fueling inflation fears.
Also, Oil is priced in dollars globally. When oil prices surge, countries need more dollars to buy it. This increases demand for USD, pushing the dollar even higher
The Fed is now less likely to cut rates. Markets went from 60% chance of a 2026 rate cut to now just 16%
Why this matters for gold:
Higher rates = higher returns elsewhere →
Gold (which doesn’t earn yield) becomes less attractive.
Bottom line:
Strong dollar + high rates = pressure on gold
Short term: gold could drop more if inflation stays high
Long term: still bullish due to money printing and de-dollarization
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