The market is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode. The ceasefire is only set for two weeks, making the remainder of April a critical period for volatility.
Bull Case: If negotiations lead to a permanent de-escalation and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, BTC could challenge its 2026 highs near $87,000.
Bear Case: Any violation of the truce or a breakdown in talks could trigger a "liquidity flush," potentially sending BTC back to test the $65,000 support level.
The Bottom Line: The immediate geopolitical "black swan" has been caged, but not removed. Keep a close eye on the April 13th earnings reports from major banks like Goldman Sachs for clues on how much "dry powder" is still waiting on the sidelines.
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