$BTC is trading around US$106,040, having seen a sizable move recently
Support & Resistance
Recent analyses note that Bitcoin broke below key support levels near US$110,000–US$114,000, which may open the path for deeper correction. CryptoPotato+3tradingview.com+3Cointelegraph+3
A major resistance level remains around US$124,000–US$125,000, a previous all-time high zone. CryptoPotato+1
If support fails, analysts point to possible downside around US$100,000 or even lower. CryptoPotato+1
Momentum & Sentiment
Technical indicators lean bearish: moving averages suggest a “sell” signal for BTC/ USD in the daily frame. Investing.com+1
On-chain metrics and ETF flows show caution: recent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and decreased short-term holder activity suggest defensive sentiment.
Longer-Term Bullish Potential
Despite short-term weakness, some research highlights that for long-term holders, a key milestone around US$140,000 is relevant to match previous profit levels.
Historical patterns in prior bull-cycles suggest after several weeks of gains there’s often a consolidation/correction phase.
Outlook & Scenarios
Bearish Scenario:
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim support near US$114K and drops below US$108K–US$105K, a deeper pullback toward US$100K or lower is possible.
Weak flows, negative momentum, and a break of trend-lines could amplify the downside.
Base/Neutral Scenario:
Bitcoin stabilises around US$100K–US$110K, forms a consolidation pattern, and waits for renewed catalysts (e.g., ETF flows, regulatory clarity, macroeconomic shifts).
Support holds and price gradually builds toward the upper range again.
Bullish Scenario:
A strong rebound with a weekly close above ~US$114K could reinvigorate bullish momentum.
If Bitcoin can clear and hold above ~US$125K, it may resume an up-leg toward US$140K and beyond (for long-term holders) or set new highs.
Key Things to Watch
Whether Bitcoin closes the week above ~US$114K — many analysts view this as a pivotal threshold.
ETF flow data and institutional interest — large outflows or decreasing interest may signal weaker demand.
Broader macro factors (e.g., interestrates, regulatory developments) that could impact risk appetite in crypto.
On-chain metrics like realised profits of long-term holders — indicators of accumulation vs distribution
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