Ronin cut its inflation by 92% and jumped 40% in a day. The market cheered, then paused. Avalanche raised $250 million and built a bank‑grade subnet, yet the price barely reacted. Two very different post‑catalyst behaviors, but the same question: will buyers step in again or fade away? I don't guess. I wait for a 4H close and a retest.
Current levels:
RONIN ≈ $0.1227
AVAX ≈ $9.13
1. RONIN (4H) — After the 40% Spike, a Pause at Resistance
The network’s switch to an Ethereum L2 and the 92.9% supply inflation cut were game‑changing moves. Coinbase listing WRON added fuel. The price tore from $0.085 to $0.15, then cooled. The 4‑hour candle at the top shows a long wick — sellers met the rally at $0.15. Volume remains high, but momentum is slowing. The RSI at 69 sits just below the overbought line. The token now trades inside a tight decision zone: $0.112 support, $0.15 resistance.
Key Levels
Resistance: $0.1500
Support: $0.1120
Trade Triggers
· Bull Setup: 4H candle close ABOVE $0.1500. Fresh capital would need to absorb the supply at the range top.
· Bear Setup: 4H candle close BELOW $0.1120. That would break the immediate bullish structure.
Bull Plan $RONIN
Trigger: 4H close above $0.1500
· Aggressive entry: enter on the close.
· Conservative entry: wait for a retest of $0.1500–$0.1450 (hold required).
Stop‑Loss: $0.1380
Targets: $0.1750 → $0.2000
Invalidation: price closes back below $0.1500.
Bear Plan (RONIN)
Trigger: 4H close below $0.1120
· Aggressive entry: enter on the close.
· Conservative entry: wait for a retest sell zone $0.1120–$0.1150 (reject required).
Stop‑Loss: $0.1180
Targets: $0.1020 → $0.0920
Invalidation: price reclaims and closes back above $0.1120.
Execution Rules
· No trades inside $0.1120–$0.1500.
· Wait for 4H close confirmation.
· Retest first — never chase.
Trade RONIN spot here ⤵
2. AVAX (4H) — Institutional Infrastructure in Place, Price Still Coiling
Avalanche has been stuck between $8.84 and $9.53 for a month. The 4H chart shows a descending triangle with lower highs and flat lows. RSI sits at 39, indicating persistent selling pressure but not yet capitulation. The market is ignoring the fundamentals: a $250 million locked fundraise from institutions, the launch of an Evergreen subnet for banking settlement (Lynq), and over 30 institutional participants including Galaxy and B2C2. CME futures reference data and Visa ecosystem integrations add to the long‑term case. But price doesn’t lie. Until spot buyers show up, AVAX remains in a holding pattern.
Key Levels
Resistance: $9.53 → $10.20
Support: $9.00 → $8.60
Trade Triggers
· Bull Setup: 4H candle close ABOVE $9.53. That would break the descending triangle and target the range highs.
· Bear Setup: 4H candle close BELOW $8.84. That would confirm a continuation of the downtrend.
Bull Plan $AVAX
Trigger: 4H close above $9.53
· Aggressive entry: enter on the close.
· Conservative entry: wait for a retest of $9.53–$9.40 (hold required).
Stop‑Loss: $9.20
Targets: $10.20 → $11.00
Invalidation: price closes back below $9.53.
Bear Plan (AVAX)
Trigger: 4H close below $8.84
· Aggressive entry: enter on the close.
· Conservative entry: wait for a retest sell zone $8.84–$8.95 (reject required).
Stop‑Loss: $9.10
Targets: $8.50 → $8.20
Invalidation: price reclaims and closes back above $8.84.
Execution Rules
· No trades inside $8.84–$9.53.
· Wait for 4H close confirmation.
· Retest first — never chase.
Trade AVAX spot here ⤵
Clarity Before You Trade
A breakout that holds a retest with volume = continuation. A close back inside the zone = a trap. Exit immediately.
Which side are you waiting for — a Ronin reclaim or an Avalanche breakdown? Tell me your entry and invalidation level.
Educational only. Not financial advice. Manage risk.