The market has yet to break out of its broader downtrend. A confirmed shift into a bull cycle will likely take more time.

The most straightforward way to gauge this is through the MVRV ratio — a metric that shows whether Bitcoin's current price is overvalued or undervalued relative to the market's average cost basis. Looking at the chart, the MVRV remains in a downtrend.

Historically, the point where MVRV bottoms out and begins to turn up has consistently aligned with the start of a new bull cycle. Based on the current trajectory, there is a reasonable probability that the bottom will be established and a new upward move will begin sometime within 2026 — but we're not there yet.

Timing is everything. Getting positioned before the market confirms a reversal is far more advantageous than chasing it after the move has already begun.

2026 is that window of preparation.

Written by Crypto Dan