Crude oil remains highly volatile as markets continue reacting to uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations, Strait of Hormuz supply risks, and conflicting global demand forecasts.
Reuters reported that oil prices rebounded after investors questioned whether diplomacy could truly stabilize Middle East supply flows. At the same time, the IEA recently warned that global oil markets could remain structurally undersupplied for months even if tensions ease.
What makes this cycle unusual is the contradiction inside the market itself:
• Geopolitical risk continues supporting prices
• But slowing manufacturing activity and weaker Chinese imports are reducing demand momentum
This creates a market driven less by economic expansion — and more by supply insecurity and macro uncertainty.
To me, oil no longer behaves like a normal commodity cycle.
It’s becoming a real-time geopolitical risk indicator.
