⸻ What Happened Last Few Years?
2022
Market context:
strong bear market,
Fed tightening,
risk-off environment.
Behavior:
holiday caused reduced momentum,
after holiday market attempted relief bounce,
then continuation downside returned later.
This was more of a “pause before continuation.”
⸻ 2023 More balanced year.
Behavior:
Low volatility during holiday,
post-holiday upside continuation in tech,
AI narrative started accelerating.
Nasdaq showed stronger behavior than Dow.
⸻ 2024
Very similar pattern:
low volume holiday chop,
BTC ranged,
equities stayed bid afterward.
The market was already in bullish structure, so holiday didn’t reverse trend — it only slowed it.
⸻ 2025 Again:
BTC mostly flat,
intraday wicks,
reduced participation,
no sustained directional conviction.
⸻ Important Thing Traders Miss
Low-volume holiday sessions can create:
fake breakouts,
fake breakdowns,
liquidity grabs,
delayed continuation.
Because:
order books thin out,
less institutional defense exists,
algos can move price easier.
So when you see:
sudden pump,
sudden dump,
or sharp candle on holiday…
…it often lacks real conviction.
⸻ Historical Statistical Bias
Long-term stats show:
Memorial Day week has historically been slightly bullish overall,
but since 2010 the edge weakened significantly.
Interesting details:
Tuesday after holiday often becomes re-pricing day.
Thursday historically stronger than Wednesday in recent years.
⸻ For BTC Traders Specifically
What usually works better on Memorial Day:
Avoid:
chasing breakouts,
overleveraging,
trading every candle.
Better approach:
wait for NY return Tuesday,
watch liquidity sweeps,
focus on session opens,
look for manipulation during low volume.
Especially for your style (BTC liquidity sweeps + NY session trading), holiday sessions are usually:
lower probability,
more manipulation-heavy,
less clean follow-through..
