1. 2025 Resilience, But Shifting Patterns:
Global merchandise trade remained stable in 2025 despite new U.S. tariffs, with container volumes growing 2.1% in October. However, U.S. imports fell sharply (−8%), while regions like Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India saw strong growth — signaling a major reconfiguration of supply chains away from the U.S.
2. 2026: The Year of Tariff Consequences:
Experts warn that 2026 will see the real impact of 2025’s tariffs. Trade turmoil is expected from four main issues:
USMCA Review: The U.S., Canada, and Mexico will renegotiate the 2020 trade deal. Tensions are high — especially with Canada — and "improvements" for one nation could hurt another.
Red Sea Reopening Risks: If shipping fully returns to the Red Sea/Suez route, a sudden surge in capacity could cause massive port congestion in Europe, disrupting supply chains.
Potential Demand Shock: If the U.S. economy accelerates sharply in 2026, a rush to restock inventories could overwhelm shipping capacity.
Fragile New Trade Deals: Recent U.S. agreements (e.g., with Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia) are not binding long-term treaties and face pressure from China. They could easily unravel.
3. Legal Uncertainty Over Tariffs:
A pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” could force the government to refund billions in tariffs to importers — though administration officials doubt widespread refunds will happen. Betting markets give a 75% chance Trump loses the case.
4. Ongoing Frictions with Major Economies:
Contentious trade talks with the EU and India will spill into 2026, and the U.S. has threatened retaliation against the EU over tech regulations. Even the U.K. deal faces new difficulties.
Bottom Line:
The global trading system is undergoing a risky transformation. 2026 will test its stability due to the aftershocks of tariffs, fragile new deals, supply chain re-routing, and legal challenges — with the U.S. at the center of the turbulence.
