Entry Zone: 2.2080 - 2.2100
Stop Loss (SL): 2.2350
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 2.1500
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 2.1300
Leverage: 50x
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 1:2.27 (TP1) | 1:3.04 (TP2)
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Strategy & Reasoning (Why This SHORT Trade?)
I am using a Mean Reversion & Resistance Strategy based on overbought signals and order book dynamics.
1. Overbought Exhaustion:
· Price has rallied +15.69%, showing signs of short-term exhaustion.
· RSI(14) at 60.44 is neutral but leaning overbought, while STOCHRSI at 91.61 is deeply overbought, indicating a high probability of a pullback.
2. Resistance Confluence:
· Price is trading near the Upper Bollinger Band (2.2252), a classic resistance zone.
· The order book shows a massive ask wall at 2.3 (836,988 BEAT), indicating strong selling interest above.
· SUPERTREND(10,3) flipped to 2.2124 (above price) in the latest chart, giving a sell signal.
3. Market Psychology:
· FOMO Trap: Retail buyers may be chasing the rally after a 15% pump, but smart money is likely taking profits near resistance.
· Bid-Ask Imbalance: Although bids currently dominate (55.37%), the large ask wall at 2.3 suggests institutional sellers are waiting.
· Funding Rate Neutral: Funding rates are slightly positive (0.00125%), not yet extreme, but overbought technicals often precede a flush.
4. Risk Management with 50x Leverage:
· SL is placed above the Upper Bollinger Band and recent swing highs (2.2350) to avoid being stopped out by a spike.
· TP1 targets the Middle Bollinger Band and EMA support (2.1500).
· TP2 targets the Lower Bollinger Band (2.1300) where buying interest may resurge.
· Position size must be calculated so that a stop loss hit loses 1-2% of total capital.
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Why I Am Taking This SHORT Trade (My Perspective)
I see a tired rally. The price has run up too fast, and the technicals are screaming overbought. The STOCHRSI above 90 is a rare signal that usually precedes a snapback. The order book confirms that big sellers are lurking above at 2.3. I’m shorting into this strength, expecting a quick pullback to the mean. This isn’t a trend reversal play—it’s a tactical mean reversion trade with a tight stop and favorable risk-reward. With 50x leverage, I’m aiming for a swift move down, but I’m fully aware that a break above 2.2350 would invalidate the setup.
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Exit & Risk Notes
· If RSI drops below 50, consider holding for TP2.
· If price breaks above 2.2250 and holds, consider exiting early to avoid a squeeze.
· Monitor volume: A surge in selling volume on the 5m chart would confirm the pullback.
· Leverage Warning: 50x amplifies risk. Use isolated margin and set stop loss immediately after entry.
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