Most people arenât watching it yet â but they should be. Yields across Japanâs government bond curve are surging simultaneously.
The 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, even the 40-year JGBs are all hitting record highs. Moves like this across every long-dated maturity are extremely rare â and theyâre a warning signal.
For decades, Japan survived on near-zero rates and unlimited monetary support. That era is now breaking down. As yields climb, stress inside the system is rising fast. Pension funds, insurers, and banks holding long-duration bonds are sitting on massive paper losses â and the risk of those losses becoming realized is growing.
Japanâs role in global markets makes this far more dangerous. It is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and owns hundreds of billions in U.S. equities and bonds. To defend the yen and stabilize its domestic financial system, Japan may be forced to repatriate capital â selling foreign assets and pulling liquidity back home.
If that process accelerates, it wonât unfold slowly. It could spark a sudden liquidity shock: âą Pressure on U.S. equities
âą Rising Treasury yields
âą Broad risk-off moves across stocks, bonds, and crypto
This is how markets shift from âeverything is fineâ to everything moving together.
Watch Japan closely.
Watch bond yields.
Watch the yen.
Early awareness is often the difference between reacting late and positioning early.
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