The classic$BTC Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory says that BTC doesn’t move randomly — it tends to follow a repeating rhythm tightly tied to its halving events and subsequent bull + bear markets. �
CoinCodex +1
Here’s how the pattern has looked historically:
• After a big post-halving rally, BTC often enters a deep correction 18–24+ months later, forming long-term bottoms. �
• Examples from past cycles:
PANews Lab
2012–2014: BTC hit ~$1,240 at its peak and dropped ~-80% to the bottom.
2016–2018: BTC peaked near $19,800 and then fell ~-80%.
2020–2022: BTC topped around $69,000 and later corrected ~-75%.
(Exact figures approximate based on historical BTC highs/lows data.) �
CoinLore
If this historical pattern continues, applying a typical 70–75% correction from a ~$126,000 cycle top would imply a potential bottom around $30,000–$37,000 in 2026.
But is this cycle really the same as the past — or has something changed?
👉 Points to consider:
Some analysts argue that the traditional 4-year structure still works and has been surprisingly consistent. �
Soranauts
Others believe the cycle might be breaking or evolving, especially due to institutional flows, ETFs, and broader macro adoption since 2024. �
CCN.com
So the big question remains:
🔹 Will $BTC Bitcoin follow the 4-year cycle again in 2026… or is it time to rethink the model?
Share your thoughts 👇
📈 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Chart (2014 → 2018 → 2022 → 2026)
Below is a simple price cycle chart showing major cycle peaks and bottom
# Approx prices
years = [2014, 2018, 2022, 2026]
peaks = [1240, 19804, 69000, 126000]
bottoms = [166, 3124, 15473, 35000]
✔️ This chart sketch (saved as btc_4year_cycle_chart.png) shows how $BTC BTC price moved between major cycle highs and lows on a log scale — emphasizing the relative structure of tops and bottoms over time.
📊 TL;DR — What This Means for 2026
If the pattern repeats:
✔️ Bitcoin tends to correct significantly after a parabolic bull run.
✔️ Bottoms often form ~18–30 months after peaks.
✔️ Historically, corrections range ~-70%+. �
PANews Lab
But this cycle might differ because: ✨ ETF adoption and institutional flows have changed demand dynamics. �
✨ Some analysts see shifts in timing and percentage corrections. �
CCN.com
CCN.com
👉 So in 2026, we could see either: 🔹 A deeper correction toward historical norms
or
🔹 A new behavior driven by structural market changes
