đš Japan just cranked up interest rates again, and itâs about to shake the whole worldâs money game. For years, Japanâs zero-rate vibe kept its massive $10T debt chill, but now yields are spiking, debt costs are exploding, and fiscal roomâs vanishing. Thatâs a recipe for default, restructuring, or crazy inflation â no easy out.
Japanâs got trillions parked abroad â over $1T in US Treasuries and tons of global stocks. With domestic bonds finally paying real returns, those foreign assets look weak after currency hedges, so moneyâs gonna flow back home. That repatriation could suck hundreds of billions out of global markets, creating a liquidity crunch.
And hereâs the kicker: the yen carry trade â over $1T borrowed cheap in yen and tossed into stocks, crypto, and emerging markets. As rates rise and yen strengthens, those trades unwind fast, triggering margin calls and forced selling. Everything could tank together.
Meanwhile, US-Japan yield gaps shrink, Japanâs less likely to fund US deficits, and US borrowing costs climb. If BoJ hikes more, yen spikes, carry trades blow up harder, and risk assets get hammered. Japan canât just print money either â inflationâs already high, and printing weakens yen, raising import prices and domestic pressure.
Wild times ahead, watch your portfolio. đđ„đ
What do you think â is this the start of a global market shakeup or just a blip?