I’ve been bullish on XRP for a long time. I held through the bear market, stayed patient during the lawsuit, and genuinely believed in the long-term narrative.
But recently, I made a tough decision: I reduced most of my position, and I’m planning to exit fully soon.
This isn’t emotional. It’s based on how markets usually behave — especially around “good news.”
When Good News Becomes a Warning
One thing markets repeatedly prove is this: major bullish news often appears near market tops, not bottoms.
In XRP’s case, ETF-related headlines and the lawsuit resolution arrived right as price reached a major multi-year resistance zone around previous highs. That timing matters.
We’ve seen this before. Back in July 2023, when the court ruling favored XRP, sentiment exploded and everyone expected a breakout. Instead, that moment marked a local top. Price struggled afterward, and late buyers paid the price.
Markets don’t reward crowds chasing headlines. They reward positioning before the news.
The Cardano Comparison
From a technical perspective, XRP’s structure looks uncomfortably similar to Cardano’s 2021 cycle.
What happened with ADA:
Price hovered near its 2018 all-time high for well over a year
Most people believed it was forming a strong base
Eventually, price broke down sharply instead of up
What we’re seeing with XRP now:
Long consolidation near the 2018 peak
Similar duration and structure
Strong belief that “this time is different”
When you overlay the charts, the resemblance is hard to ignore.
The Bigger Picture
Some uncomfortable truths traders often overlook:
Bullish headlines near resistance often act as exit liquidity
ETF narratives don’t always mean immediate upside
Long consolidations at old highs can resolve downward
Markets move ahead of news, not after it
I wanted XRP to win. I stayed invested for years because of that belief.
But price action doesn’t care about belief — it reflects positioning.
Right now, the market appears to have priced in the positives long ago. What comes next may not be what most expect.
Cardano holders in 2021 learned this lesson the hard way. XRP might be approaching a similar moment.