According to analysts at Bernstein, Bitcoin could form its macro bottom sometime during 2026. Their expectation is that in the first half of the year, price may drop close to the $60,000 level, where a strong support base could develop and later become the foundation for recovery. At present, Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, nearly 40% below its all-time high, clearly reflecting weakness across the broader market.
Bearish sentiment is also becoming more visible in prediction markets. Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in 2026 has risen to over 60%. At the same time, there are notable probabilities for a move below $55,000, as well as a scenario where Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 by year-end, highlighting the extreme uncertainty currently dominating the market.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has now dropped to roughly 4% of gold’s total market cap, close to the lowest level seen in the past two years. Central banks in China and India significantly increased gold purchases by the end of 2025, pushing gold’s share of global reserves to around 29%. During this period, Bitcoin has continued to underperform relative to gold.
Bernstein notes that the current phase appears to be a short-term bear market, different from previous long-term downturns. This cycle is marked by strong institutional participation, with large capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and major corporations already holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant argues that a formal bear market began after Bitcoin fell below its long-term average in November 2025. They caution that investors should not rush to identify a bottom immediately after a sharp decline, as bear markets typically take several months to form a sustainable bottom.