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Rising EV adoption in the United States is reducing gas tax revenues, putting the Highway Trust Fund under increasing financial strain.
The auto industry proposes replacing the outdated gas tax with a weight-based vehicle fee so all vehicles contribute to road funding.
The shift is driven by long-term funding gaps, inflation, and the transition away from gasoline-powered cars, which threatens infrastructure financing.
The growing share of electric vehicles and the expected increase in EV sales this year amid soaring gasoline prices are reducing the revenues for the U.S. Highway Trust Fund, which pays for America’s roads.
Most of the revenue for the fund comes from the 18.4% per gallon federal gas tax, which hasn’t been changed since 1993.
Yet, over the past 30 years, the funding for the trust fund has been declining, due to inflation and the fact that EVs now represent 2.5% of total light-duty vehicles in operation in America, and the market share of internal combustion engine vehicles has dropped by 24 percentage points since 2016.
The new oil crisis and U.S. national average gasoline price topping $4 per gallon could prompt more potential buyers to look to purchase an EV—whose owners, obviously, don’t pay the federal gas tax.
More EVs means lower revenues for the Highway Trust Fund, which is teetering on bankruptcy every year and needs to be regularly backfilled by Congress. Therefore, the current oil crisis “shows why it’s time to dump the gas tax,” John Bozzella, president and CEO of Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said this week.
The auto industry trade association, which represents most U.S. and foreign automakers in America, proposes to scrap the federal gas tax and replace it with a single fee on every vehicle based on weight.
This policy would guarantee every vehicle on the road contributes something to maintaining America’s transportation network,” Bozzella wrote in a blog post this week.
We can drive with the devil we know… or get behind a new policy that requires every vehicle on the road to contribute to the upkeep of America’s roads and bridges.”
The auto industry group’s latest analysis of U.S. EV data showed at the end of March that a total of 164 electric models are now available for sale in the U.S. Although EV sales fell last year from 2024, electric vehicles represented 9.6% of new U.S. light-duty vehicle sales for full-year 2025.
EVs now account for 2.5% of total light-duty vehicles in operation in the United States, while the market share of internal combustion engine vehicles, whose owners pay the federal gas tax, has decreased by 24 percentage points since 2016.
In January 2026, hybrids were 19% of all light-duty vehicle sales, the Alliance’s CEO Bozzella said.
As gasoline prices spike due to the war in the Middle East, the U.S. might see an additional shift in the marketplace toward EVs and hybrids, the industry group said.
Online searches for EVs are up 20 percent since the conflict began,” Bozzella wrote.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation argues that a single, weight-based vehicle fee can fully fund the Highway Trust Fund, unlike the gas tax.
For over 20 years, transportation spending has exceeded the dedicated revenue flowing into the trust fund as the gas tax has failed to keep pace with inflation, and vehicles are becoming more fuel-efficient, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says. It estimates that the Highway Trust Fund would be insolvent by 2028.
Since increasing the federal gas tax is a nonstarter in any Congress, the solution to fix the problem with the dwindling revenues for the Highway Trust Fund is to replace it with a fee for every vehicle using the road, regardless of how it’s powered/fueled, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation says.
Bozzella notes that the proposed weight-based vehicle fee is simple, and nobody would need to track how many miles you drive, like some proposals out there, to determine what you pay.
Beyond that, it’s an overdue policy change that insulates infrastructure spending – a $3.5 trillion national need over the next decade – from gas price shocks and inevitable geopolitical disruptions,” Bozzella noted.
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Markets appear stable on the surface, but underlying stress is building across interconnected commodity chains—oil, gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, helium, and logistics—raising the risk of a systemic breakdown.
The key shift is from pricing risk to deliverability and access risk, with supply chains losing flexibility and physical shortages beginning to emerge beneath still-functioning paper markets.
The next two weeks are critical: if disruptions persist, cascading failures could trigger inflation, supply shortages, and a broader global economic shock.
The familiar assumption used by markets remains in place, at least according to financial analysts: what has been priced is what matters. Oil is still elevated but not yet showing a disorderly pattern. LNG is tightening but still trading within a recognizable or conventional range. Freight rates are rising, insurers are repricing risk, and policymakers continue to signal control. On the surface, all these signs are showing a stressed but functioning system.
The coming weeks will reveal which systemic risks-such as chain desynchronization or supply chain coupling-policymakers must prioritize to prevent cascading failures, guiding targeted proactive measures.
The real situation in the market has clearly shifted from disruption to early-stage system strain. Recognizing how oil, gas, naphtha, fertilizer, and helium are interconnected will help policymakers and analysts feel the system's fragility and the risk of a widespread shock.
This coupling of commodity chains could lead to widespread economic impacts, including inflationary pressures and supply shortages, emphasizing the urgency for stakeholders to prepare for systemic disruptions.
For media and most analysts, oil and gas are the visible front line. Physical flows have not recovered to pre-crisis levels, while, much more importantly, confidence in their stability has eroded and will continue to do so. Even where volumes are partially moving, the market is treating them as unreliable. That distinction matters, as it will shift behavior from trading to securing.
Until now, an illusion has been in place, holding markets together over the past weeks: cargoes in transit, delayed physical impact, and the expectation of rapid stabilization. This will be fading as refiners begin to adjust intake assumptions. LNG buyers are moving from portfolio optimization to a clear new strategy: outright procurement urgency. Strategic reserves are being discussed not only as precautionary tools but also, given the facts on the ground, as potential necessities.
The divergence between paper and physical markets is widening. Benchmarks still reflect liquidity and sentiment. When looking at physical cargoes, there is clearly scarcity and risk. This gap is a precursor to dislocation and should already be recognized.
Shipping is accelerating this transition. War-risk insurance constraints are tightening further. It has also been changing as behavioral risk is rising. Owners are not only reacting to premiums; they are also slowly but steadily reassessing their exposure entirely. The result of this change is that there is a reduction of available tonnage in practice, even where fleets exist on paper. For all, deliverability, not production anymore, is the central constraint.
The second chain, showing early signs of stress, is naphtha. Petrochemical margins have become increasingly compressed due to feedstock uncertainty and rising costs. It is not yet a full disruption, but the shift is visible: reduced operating rates, cautious procurement, and early signs of pricing pass-through.
The naphtha situation is critical as it sits at the core of industrial transformation. Plastics, chemicals, packaging, and solvents all depend on the availability of stable feedstocks. While there will not be an immediate shock, it will create a broad, creeping constraint across manufacturing systems.
The third chain, fertilizer, has already entered its critical window as gas-linked production economics deteriorate. At the same time, producers have begun adjusting output expectations. At present, the market is not yet recognizing all of it, as it is still treating fertilizer as a secondary risk because physical shortages have not yet materialized.
The fertilizer risk is already delayed and will remain that way for weeks or months. It needs to be recognized that production decisions made now will determine availability weeks and months ahead. All signs are already on red, with tightening margins, cautious production, and early signs of reduced forward supply becoming visible by the day. Once this translates into agricultural input shortages, the system will have very limited ability to respond.
Helium, the fourth chain, has already made some headlines. It is moving quietly but decisively into risk territory. Gas processing disruptions are beginning to ripple through helium availability, with early signs of supply tightening in specialized markets.
Food inflation will not start today. But the conditions for it are being set now.
The fifth chain, logistics, has moved to the forefront; it is no longer a background variable. Its role as a primary driver of system stress should make industry leaders and policymakers aware of the urgent need for action to maintain supply flexibility and prevent disruptions.
Policymakers and analysts should understand that the industries that are exposed to this development, such as healthcare, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, are not marginal economic sectors; they are critical. And they do not have easy substitutes.
When this happens, the adjustment will not be gradual, but abrupt, non-linear, and difficult to reverse. It should be understood that, in systemic risk, the most expensive moment is the one just before recognition. This is when signals are clearly visible, but no action is taken.
That is where the market stands now. In the next two weeks, it will be determined whether this remains a severe disruption or, if the signals are there, a systemic break.
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The crypto market is currently showing a mixed but interesting structure, where volatility is slowly building after a quiet phase 👀
Bitcoin is holding steady, which is often a signal that altcoins may start gaining momentum. When the market leader stabilizes, capital usually flows into smaller coins — creating short-term trading opportunities 📊
Coins like PEPE are showing early signs of volume increase and tight consolidation. This type of setup is often seen before sudden breakout moves, especially in meme coins where sentiment plays a big role 🚀
On the other hand, strong projects like SOL continue to maintain a healthy structure, forming higher lows and holding key support levels. This indicates that buyers are still active and confident, even during slower market conditions 📈
DOGE is also starting to pick up volume again. Historically, when DOGE sees increased activity, it tends to move quickly and attract market attention. However, confirmation is still important to avoid fake breakouts ⚠️
👉 Overall, the market is not fully bullish yet, but early signals are forming
👉 Smart traders watch these phases closely — this is where opportunities begin, not where they end
The key right now is patience, confirmation, and understanding market structure rather than chasing hype blindly
Are you preparing early… or waiting for the crowd? 👇
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Listen carefully… the current zone where $ETH ETH is moving is not normal. This is the kind of setup that usually comes before a strong breakout. I’m seeing clear signs that $ETH is preparing for a big move very soon.
Most people are still sleeping on this, but smart money is already positioning. Once the momentum starts, $ETH can move fast and leave everyone behind. Don’t wait for confirmation at the top—that’s when it’s already too late.