✅ 1. The U.S. did carry out a military operation in Venezuela
A major U.S. military strike in early January 2026 targeted Venezuela’s government and resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, who was taken to the U.S. to face federal charges. His wife was also reportedly captured. 
This is confirmed by multiple international reports — it’s not just rumor or unverified social media.
✅ 2. The impact on crude oil prices
After the news broke, oil prices fluctuated with a slight downward bias in early Asian trading, with Brent crude and U.S. WTI modestly lower. 
However, other market reports also show mixed reactions: prices swung up and down as markets weighed uncertainty and future supply prospects — not a straight or dramatic crash. 
📉 Why prices initially dipped
• Traders may be pricing in expectations that Venezuela’s oil could eventually be opened up to more production or investment under U.S.-aligned management — boosting future supply and weighing on prices. 
• Presently, global markets are well supplied, and Venezuela’s current output is small relative to the world total, so short-term impact on supply is limited. 
📊 But it’s not a simple case of “capture = price fall”
• Prices didn’t crash massively — they stabilized with small declines or swings. 
• Analysts point out that Venezuela currently produces only about ~1 million barrels per day, far below its historical levels and a small slice of the global ~100 million bpd market. 
• Any future effect depends on whether Venezuela’s production actually increases — which would require significant investment — or if further disruption knocks output lower.
🟡 What experts say
• Some analysts view a possible future increase in Venezuelan oil as bearish for prices over the long run. 
• Others say the capture alone won’t meaningfully move markets short term because the global oil glut and other supply sources dominate price direction. 
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Bottom Line
✔️ The U.S. did capture Nicolás Maduro in a military operation. 
✔️ Crude prices initially edged down in some markets after the news. 
❌ But it’s not a clear causal rule that the capture directly caused large oil price drops — the reaction is nuanced and markets are still digesting the geopolitical implications.
Oil prices are influenced by global supply/demand balances, Venezuela’s limited current output, and trader expectations about what future Venezuelan production might look like.
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If you want, I can give a simple visual chart showing how oil prices moved around the news or explain what this might mean for fuel prices in your region.
#crudeoil