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Bitcoin stays range-bound ahead of year-end options expiry, despite macro and risk-asset conditions turning bullish.
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Bitcoin has spent most of December trading within a tight $85,000–$90,000 range. This consolidation has been driven by dealer hedging linked to large options positions, with buying pressure emerging near $85,000 and selling interest capping moves around $90,000. Roughly $27 billion in open interest is set to expire on Deribit, heavily skewed toward calls, suggesting options dynamics favor a move toward the upper end of the range.
Bitcoin (BTC) has spent nearly all of December stuck in a narrow $85,000–$90,000 range, even as U.S. stocks surged and gold reached record highs. This sideways action has tested investor patience, with derivatives-related positioning largely responsible for the price stagnation.
Those same derivatives dynamics now suggest a potential shift. As options expire, bitcoin appears more likely to break higher toward the mid-$90,000s than to see a sustained move below $85,000.
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With markets now firmly in the home straight for the run into year-end, the crypto sector remains in a daze following its October meltdown.
After being one of the best-performing assets during the first nine months of 2025, with Bitcoin up over 35% at its October peak of $126,272, it is now down 5.25% year-to-date (YTD) at its current price of $88,480. Ethereum has suffered a similar fall from grace. At its current price of $3005, it is down 9.80% YTD, a stark contrast to being up almost 50% in August.
The overhang from this correction has left the outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum uncertain, a sentiment perhaps best illustrated by the conflicting views offered recently by two research strategists at the boutique United States (US) firm Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Analysts split on crypto outlook as uncertainty grows
Tom Lee, the well-known co-founder and head of research, remains publicly bullish. He predicts that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within months and calls Ether at roughly $3000 ‘grossly undervalued’. Notably, Lee is also the chairman of BitMine, a company aiming to become the world’s leading Ethereum treasury.
However, in a recent internal client note, Sean Farrell – Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy – caused a stir by outlining a more cautious short-term view. Farrell sees Bitcoin falling to $60,000 – $65,000 in the first half of 2026, citing risk management concerns and the potential for further drawdowns.
Tom Lee explained the disagreement by stating that the views reflected different mandates: his own long-term macro bullishness versus Farrell’s near-term tactical caution.
Our view is more in line with Farrell’s. This is based on our technical view outlined here two weeks ago (and refreshed below), reinforced by the soft price action overnight as Bitcoin recoiled from the $90,536 high it hit earlier in the session, despite a supportive backdrop of higher equities, rising gold prices, and a US dollar.
Bitcoin technical analysis
The 17.5% rally from the 21 November $8053 ‘capitulation low’ to the recent $94,652 high displays corrective qualities, which implies the rally is countertrend (Wave IV within the Elliott Wave framework).
This suggests that while Bitcoin remains below the $95,000 – $100,000 resistance zone, the risks are for the downtrend to resume and for a retest and break of the $8053 low (for Wave V), towards the Liberation Day lows at $75,000.
It is important to note that if Bitcoin first sees a sustained break above resistance at $95,000 – $100,000 and then above the 200-day moving average (MA) currently at $108,000, it will shift the landscape in favour of a retest of the $126,272 high.
Bitcoin daily chart
Bitcoin daily chartSource: TradingView
Ethereum technical analysis
The 33% rally from the 21 November $2620 ‘capitulation low’ to the recent $3477 high displays corrective qualities, which implies the rally is countertrend (Wave IV within the Elliott Wave framework).
This suggests that while Ethereum remains below the recent $3477 high reinforced by the 200-day MA currently at $3600, the risks are for the downtrend to resume and for a retest and break of the $2620 low (for Wave V), towards $2250.
It is important to note that if Ethereum first sees a sustained break above resistance at $3500 – $3600, it would shift the landscape initially towards a test of $4000, before a possible rally towards the $4750 – $4950 resistance zone.
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Have you heard about the Central Bank of Russia's new proposal for cryptocurrency investment rules? It’s quite a big deal, as they aim to regulate the domestic market. From what I understand, the rules are set to kick in by July 2026. They introduce a tiered system for investors, distinguishing between "qualified" and "unqualified" investors. Unqualified investors face a limit on their annual investment in highly liquid cryptocurrencies, capped at 300,000 rubles (around $3,800), but only if they pass a risk-awareness test. Those labeled as qualified investors won't see such limits, but they'll also need to take a test. Interestingly, both categories of investors are barred from investing in anonymous cryptocurrencies.
What's the Goal Behind These Rules?
The main goal here is to provide better market oversight and to protect investors. Given that around 20 million Russians are now using cryptocurrencies, these rules seem timely. They mandate that all transactions must go through licensed Russian exchanges, brokers, or trustees. For illegal intermediaries, penalties will start to take effect in 2027.
How Will This Affect Retail Investors?
In theory, the new rules aim to create a safer environment for retail investors. By requiring licensed intermediaries for transactions, the intention is to reduce risks from unregulated platforms. But let's be real—this tiered access could make it harder for smaller investors. The competency tests and investment caps might be a barrier for many who want to get involved.
While the rules aim to protect investors, some fear they could stifle innovation. If more people need to use licensed intermediaries, it might elevate costs and make it less accessible for everyday investors. This could lead them to seek alternatives elsewhere.
What About Fintech Startups in Asia?
Funnily enough, Russia's new regulations won't really impact fintech startups in Asia. The rules target domestic markets and won't restrict foreign entities or cross-border operations. So, Asian fintech companies, which are under their own regulatory frameworks—like Singapore’s MAS guidelines—shouldn't feel the pinch.
The absence of direct provisions aimed at Asian markets means fintech startups, especially in Southeast Asia, can continue to thrive. Countries like Singapore and India have their own challenges, but they aren't directly influenced by Russia's policies. So, while Russia's rules may add liquidity to its local market, they won’t disrupt Asia’s fintech landscape.
Could This Regulatory Approach Work for Other Countries?
Could Russia’s tiered regulatory approach serve as a playbook for other countries? It seems the intent is to balance investor protection with market accessibility. By differentiating between types of investors, the hope is to cultivate a secure environment for crypto participation. But the stringent limits on investment and the ban on domestic payments in cryptocurrencies could deter growth.
Countries with looser regulations might be drawn to Russia’s model. They could adopt Russia’s approach to implement safeguards without choking off market growth. But will it be effective? It’s hard to say. The success of any model will depend heavily on the unique economic and regulatory landscapes of each country. In this global struggle to regulate cryptocurrencies, Russia's approach offers insights—but they must tread carefully.
Why Are Over-Regulatory Risks Important for SMEs in Europe?
Over-regulating the cryptocurrency market can be a double-edged sword for small to medium enterprises (SMEs) in Europe. The EU’s MiCA regulation is set to impose significant compliance burdens that could severely impact smaller firms. They might find it difficult to meet new licensing, governance, and reporting requirements.
Also, the centralized oversight structure created by MiCA may slow innovation, making European startups less competitive compared to those in more flexible regulatory environments. Then there's the risk of regulatory fragmentation across EU member states, which adds further complexity to cross-border operations.
The perception of being treated differently than traditional financial instruments could also hurt European SMEs. They'll need proactive compliance strategies to maintain their edge in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.
How Do These Changes Impact Crypto Payroll Solutions Globally?
The changes in Russia’s cryptocurrency investment rules also have global ramifications for crypto payroll solutions. As the regulatory landscape clarifies, businesses may find it easier to adopt crypto payroll systems, especially those using stablecoins for payments. If token classification and custody rules become more predictable, it could foster institutional growth in crypto payroll solutions.
Yet compliance remains a hurdle for global adoption. Companies wanting to pay employees in cryptocurrencies must navigate different regulations in various countries, which complicates matters. The growing popularity of crypto payroll solutions—particularly in Latin America where startups increasingly embrace digital currencies—underscores the need for clear regulatory frameworks to encourage expansion.
As the global market for crypto payroll solutions grows, businesses will need to stay informed about the regulatory landscape and ensure compliance with local laws. Building trust and legitimacy in using cryptocurrencies for payroll and other financial transactions will be vital.
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