fgiinsights

📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 17/04/2026

The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between the FGI and Winrate remains low and continues to lean negative (r ~ -0.32). This further reinforces that FGI is not suitable as a tool for forecasting price direction or identifying entry points, but it still has practical value in quantifying position risk. In particular, trading performance generally continues to weaken when market sentiment moves into extreme euphoria, so FGI is better used as an early risk warning signal rather than a signal for expanding profit targets.

Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), the minimum break-even R:R, and the number of recorded days (n) across each sentiment zone for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.9% • R:R=1:1.13 • n=184
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.9% • R:R=1:0.89 • n=92

The share of days with performance above the average level (46.63%) in each zone is:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 36.7%
😐 Neutral: 41.3%
😨 Fear: 52.2%
😱 Extreme Fear: 70.7%

➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust profit expectations when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, the profit target should be raised so that the R:R remains large enough to offset the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, the profit target can be reduced to improve capital turnover and make profit realization easier.

#TradingPerformance #FGIInsights $METIS $BICO $DOGE

📊 WIN RATE & FEAR-GREED INDEX (FGI) ANALYSIS — updated through 2025-10-25


Daily community scalping win-rate data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.10). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” zone remains the riskiest for performance.


🔍 Quick take

In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags the win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.


📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with days)

😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5

😟 Fear (20–<40): 45.54% — n=110

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.21% — n=126

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)


Share of days above the overall average (44.92%) by band:

Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 55.45% • Neutral 48.41% • Greed 45.33% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.


📈 Implications for scalping

➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.

➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a wholesale strategy shift).

➤ FGI <20: small sample — handle with care; priority remains order management.


#FGIInsights #TradingPerformance

📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS — updated to 2025-09-27

Daily community win rate data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” phase continues to be the riskiest zone for performance.

🔍 Quick take

In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) does not show a clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample size and should be treated as indicative only.

📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)

😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5

😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.82% — n=94

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.32% — n=123

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.95% — n=205

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)

Share of days above the 44.79% average win rate by band:

Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 51.06% • Neutral 52.85% • Greed 47.32% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.

This reinforces that “Extreme Greed” is where discipline should be tightened the most, while Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the average.

📈 Implications for scalping

➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, and favor earlier profit-taking when momentum weakens.

➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences among Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to justify a wholesale strategy change).

➤ FGI <20: small sample; handle cautiously, with focus on order management.

#TradingStats #FGIInsights