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JPMorgan: Bitcoin Futures Undervalued as Investors Shift Towards Gold and Silver

JPMorgan analysts identify a rising potential emerging in Bitcoin. Although gold and silver have seen strong inflows and are currently in overbought conditions, Bitcoin futures have entered oversold territory, indicating a possible opportunity for mean reversion as market positioning adjusts.

The transition started in the latter part of 2025. Investors withdrew from Bitcoin ETFs following months of consistent accumulation, while money swiftly moved into precious metals. Gold ETFs concluded the year with close to $60 billion in total inflows, while silver experienced a significant late-year spike—indicating that a large portion of the “safe-haven trade” is currently congested.

Institutional conduct lends credence to the idea that metals might be overextended. Futures data indicates that hedge funds are accumulating significant long positions in gold and silver, whereas bitcoin futures positioning appears relatively low. Momentum indicators highlight the discrepancy: gold is overbought, silver is excessively overbought, and Bitcoin is undervalued.

This difference is important for buyers. Overcrowded positions typically have uneven downside risks, while less owned investments present clearer potential for gains when sentiment changes. The reduced liquidity of Bitcoin can heighten volatility—but it also enables prices to adjust rapidly when demand resurfaces.

JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook for gold in the long term, forecasting a possible $8,000–$8,500 range as central banks and individual investors increase their allocations. However, in the short term, the risk-reward dynamics seem to be enhancing for Bitcoin as selling pressure diminishes and positioning readjusts.

Markets seldom reward agreement at extremes. With significant investment concentrated in metals and bitcoin sidelined, circumstances are subtly favoring a shift back to digital assets.

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