oott
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🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #Copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #Commodity
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #Copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #Commodity
🇷🇺 RUSSIA STILL HOLDS 16% OF EU LNG🇪🇺
Even after the war.
2025 numbers:
• 🇺🇸 US. 52.5% of EU LNG (€24.2B)
• 🇷🇺 Russia. 16.1% (€7.4B)
(Russia revenue only -3% vs 2024)
Moscow remained the EU’s 2nd LNG supplier by value.
And wants to be a global LNG superpower.
On paper:
• Yamal LNG – 17.4 mtpa
• Arctic LNG 1 & 2 – ~40 mtpa combined
• Baltic, Murmansk, Obsky projects planned
• Far East & Sakhalin expansion
Dozens of mtpa under construction or planned.
Reality:
• Sanctions block tech & financing
• Arctic LNG 2 stalled
• Ice-class fleet constraints
• Limited Western buyers
Ambition: 100+ mtpa long term.
Execution: constrained.
#Russia can build capacity.
But selling it at scale is the real bottleneck.
#oott #energy #LNG
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Even after the war.
2025 numbers:
• 🇺🇸 US. 52.5% of EU LNG (€24.2B)
• 🇷🇺 Russia. 16.1% (€7.4B)
(Russia revenue only -3% vs 2024)
Moscow remained the EU’s 2nd LNG supplier by value.
And wants to be a global LNG superpower.
On paper:
• Yamal LNG – 17.4 mtpa
• Arctic LNG 1 & 2 – ~40 mtpa combined
• Baltic, Murmansk, Obsky projects planned
• Far East & Sakhalin expansion
Dozens of mtpa under construction or planned.
Reality:
• Sanctions block tech & financing
• Arctic LNG 2 stalled
• Ice-class fleet constraints
• Limited Western buyers
Ambition: 100+ mtpa long term.
Execution: constrained.
#Russia can build capacity.
But selling it at scale is the real bottleneck.
#oott #energy #LNG
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🛢️ VENEZUELA IS BACK ON THE U.S. MAP
• Chevron deploying $100M+
• New hydrocarbons law
• US Energy Secretary in Caracas
🇻🇪 303Bn barrels of reserves
Production ~1M bpd → targeting 2.5M+ bpd.
This is brownfield recovery. Not new megaprojects.
And it’s politically backed.
💡 One oilfield services company made $500M+ per year there pre-sanctions.
Today. Zero #Venezuela revenue.
If volumes return, so can margins.
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#oott
• Chevron deploying $100M+
• New hydrocarbons law
• US Energy Secretary in Caracas
🇻🇪 303Bn barrels of reserves
Production ~1M bpd → targeting 2.5M+ bpd.
This is brownfield recovery. Not new megaprojects.
And it’s politically backed.
💡 One oilfield services company made $500M+ per year there pre-sanctions.
Today. Zero #Venezuela revenue.
If volumes return, so can margins.
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#oott
💥 THE WORLD’S RESOURCE POWER MAP
Underground wealth in $ trillions.
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
• 🇮🇶 Iraq $16T
• 🇻🇪 #Venezuela $14T
This is oil, gas, coal, #copper, rare earths, uranium.
Geology shapes geopolitics.
Countries with reserves hold leverage.
#oott
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Underground wealth in $ trillions.
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
• 🇮🇶 Iraq $16T
• 🇻🇪 #Venezuela $14T
This is oil, gas, coal, #copper, rare earths, uranium.
Geology shapes geopolitics.
Countries with reserves hold leverage.
#oott
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🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
FOLLOW LIKE SHARE
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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🚨 US WANTS TO CUT IRANIAN OIL TO CHINA
Maximum pressure is back on the table.
• US + Israel aligned on tightening Iran oil flows
• Target = Iranian exports to China
• Iran ships 1.5 mb/d, mostly to China
• Much moves via shadow fleets
Why it matters?
• China is Iran’s lifeline buyer
• Cutting that flow hits Tehran’s revenue
• Enforcement risk rises for traders + insurers
This is supply risk.
If enforcement intensifies:
• Iranian barrels disappear from “visible” market
• China refiners scramble for alternatives
• Heavy crude differentials tighten
• Oil risk premium returns
The market sees surplus.
Policy can erase barrels overnight.
#China #Iran #OOTT
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Maximum pressure is back on the table.
• US + Israel aligned on tightening Iran oil flows
• Target = Iranian exports to China
• Iran ships 1.5 mb/d, mostly to China
• Much moves via shadow fleets
Why it matters?
• China is Iran’s lifeline buyer
• Cutting that flow hits Tehran’s revenue
• Enforcement risk rises for traders + insurers
This is supply risk.
If enforcement intensifies:
• Iranian barrels disappear from “visible” market
• China refiners scramble for alternatives
• Heavy crude differentials tighten
• Oil risk premium returns
The market sees surplus.
Policy can erase barrels overnight.
#China #Iran #OOTT
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🚨 RUSSIA SITS ON $75 TRILLION IN NATURAL RESOURCES
That’s more than anyone
Top countries by resource value:
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
Russia’s edge:
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Timber
• Rare earths
This isn’t GDP.
It’s underground leverage.
#Energy. #Metals Strategic materials.
When geopolitics escalates,
countries with reserves hold optionality.
The balance of power isn’t just military.
It’s geological.
#OOTT
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That’s more than anyone
Top countries by resource value:
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
Russia’s edge:
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Timber
• Rare earths
This isn’t GDP.
It’s underground leverage.
#Energy. #Metals Strategic materials.
When geopolitics escalates,
countries with reserves hold optionality.
The balance of power isn’t just military.
It’s geological.
#OOTT
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🚨 VENEZUELA IS NOT JUST AN OIL STORY
It’s a resource superpower.
• 🇻🇪 Oil 303B barrels, first globally
• Natural gas 5.5 Tcm, Top 10
• #Gold ~2,300 tonnes (est.)
• Iron ore ~6 Gt
• Bauxite, diamonds, #coal
Most concentrated around the Orinoco Belt & #Mining Arc.
#Venezuela isn’t a 1 commodity bet.
It’s a geology advantage.
If political normalization accelerates:
• Hydrocarbons scale first
• Mining FDI follows
• Strategic metals re-rate
Venezuela isn’t just a turnaround oil trade.
It’s a multi-resource optionality play.
#oott #NatGas
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It’s a resource superpower.
• 🇻🇪 Oil 303B barrels, first globally
• Natural gas 5.5 Tcm, Top 10
• #Gold ~2,300 tonnes (est.)
• Iron ore ~6 Gt
• Bauxite, diamonds, #coal
Most concentrated around the Orinoco Belt & #Mining Arc.
#Venezuela isn’t a 1 commodity bet.
It’s a geology advantage.
If political normalization accelerates:
• Hydrocarbons scale first
• Mining FDI follows
• Strategic metals re-rate
Venezuela isn’t just a turnaround oil trade.
It’s a multi-resource optionality play.
#oott #NatGas
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🚨 IRAN RISK IS BACK ON THE OIL TAPE
And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
#Iran #oott
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And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
#Iran #oott
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🚨 EUROPE’S GAS SHOCK ISN’T OVER
Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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🚨 CHEVRON TO DOUBLE OUTPUT IN VENEZUELA
With explicit US backing them🇺🇸
• 2x production in 1 field in 12–18 months
• 5x over 5 years if licenses expand
• $100m near-term infrastructure spend
• License expansion to market 100% of output
Chevron already 25% of national production.
This is sanctioned oil reintegration under US control.
If executed:
• Hundreds of kb/d back to market
• USGC refiners secure heavy crude
• Russian/Iranian barrels face competition
💡 This is an opportunity.
One company generated $500M+ annually in Venezuela pre-sanctions.
It just crushed Q4.
It has zero Venezuela revenue... For now
Full thesis, data, risks and position structure here 👇
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#oott #Venezuela
With explicit US backing them🇺🇸
• 2x production in 1 field in 12–18 months
• 5x over 5 years if licenses expand
• $100m near-term infrastructure spend
• License expansion to market 100% of output
Chevron already 25% of national production.
This is sanctioned oil reintegration under US control.
If executed:
• Hundreds of kb/d back to market
• USGC refiners secure heavy crude
• Russian/Iranian barrels face competition
💡 This is an opportunity.
One company generated $500M+ annually in Venezuela pre-sanctions.
It just crushed Q4.
It has zero Venezuela revenue... For now
Full thesis, data, risks and position structure here 👇
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#oott #Venezuela
🚨 RUSSIA DIDN’T LOSE BUYERS.
IT CHANGED THEM.
What happened?
• Sanctions reshaped flows
• Discounts redirected barrels
• Asia absorbed volume
• Europe rerouted to LNG + US crude
Russia didn’t disappear from the market.
It pivoted East.
If this persists:
• Asia locks long-term discounts
• Europe pays structural premium
• Trade routes harden
• Energy blocs solidify
Oil flows follow politics and politics now follows oil.
#oott #Russia
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IT CHANGED THEM.
What happened?
• Sanctions reshaped flows
• Discounts redirected barrels
• Asia absorbed volume
• Europe rerouted to LNG + US crude
Russia didn’t disappear from the market.
It pivoted East.
If this persists:
• Asia locks long-term discounts
• Europe pays structural premium
• Trade routes harden
• Energy blocs solidify
Oil flows follow politics and politics now follows oil.
#oott #Russia
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🚨 THE ENERGY GAP IS NOT CLOSING
It’s scaling with income
• US 250–300 GJ per person
• #India 25–30 GJ per person
• DR Congo 1 GJ per person
Huge gap between richest and poorest
Why?
• Industrialisation drives energy intensity
• Urbanisation multiplies electricity demand
• Mobility = oil demand
• Income growth = appliance growth
If billions move from $5k to $15k GDP per capita:
• Power grids must triple
• LNG demand structurally rises
• Oil demand plateaus later than expected
• Coal exits slower than models assume
Per capita #energy use is a proxy for wealth.
And most of the world is still at the bottom left of that chart.
Markets price peak demand.
Demographics price expansion.
#OOTT
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It’s scaling with income
• US 250–300 GJ per person
• #India 25–30 GJ per person
• DR Congo 1 GJ per person
Huge gap between richest and poorest
Why?
• Industrialisation drives energy intensity
• Urbanisation multiplies electricity demand
• Mobility = oil demand
• Income growth = appliance growth
If billions move from $5k to $15k GDP per capita:
• Power grids must triple
• LNG demand structurally rises
• Oil demand plateaus later than expected
• Coal exits slower than models assume
Per capita #energy use is a proxy for wealth.
And most of the world is still at the bottom left of that chart.
Markets price peak demand.
Demographics price expansion.
#OOTT
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Oil & gas runs through four core segments:
🛢️ Upstream
Exploration & production.
Driven by oil & gas prices. Highest risk, highest leverage.
🚚 Midstream
Pipelines, shipping, storage.
Driven by volumes and contracts. Infrastructure play.
🏭 Downstream
Refining & petrochemicals.
Driven by margins and product demand.
🛒 Marketing & End Use
Retail, aviation, industry.
Driven by final consumption.
When the cycle shifts, profits rotate across the chain.
#oott
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🛢️ Upstream
Exploration & production.
Driven by oil & gas prices. Highest risk, highest leverage.
🚚 Midstream
Pipelines, shipping, storage.
Driven by volumes and contracts. Infrastructure play.
🏭 Downstream
Refining & petrochemicals.
Driven by margins and product demand.
🛒 Marketing & End Use
Retail, aviation, industry.
Driven by final consumption.
When the cycle shifts, profits rotate across the chain.
#oott
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#RiskAssetsMarketShock
🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
#oott
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🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
#oott
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⚡️ Energy Power Is Concentrated in Just 2 Countries
That's the real secret to rule the 🌎
🇨🇳China and 🇺🇸the United States dominate almost everything that matters
🪨 Coal: China = 52% of global production
🛢️ Crude oil: US = 21%, Saudi Arabia = 11%, Russia = 11%
🔥 Natural gas: US = 25% of global output
☢️ Nuclear: US = 30%, China catching fast at 16%
🌊 Hydro: China = 30%
☀️ Solar: China = 39%
🌬️ Wind: China = 40%
🌽 Biofuels: US = 37%, Brazil = 22%
#energy #oott #natgas #coal #China
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That's the real secret to rule the 🌎
🇨🇳China and 🇺🇸the United States dominate almost everything that matters
🪨 Coal: China = 52% of global production
🛢️ Crude oil: US = 21%, Saudi Arabia = 11%, Russia = 11%
🔥 Natural gas: US = 25% of global output
☢️ Nuclear: US = 30%, China catching fast at 16%
🌊 Hydro: China = 30%
☀️ Solar: China = 39%
🌬️ Wind: China = 40%
🌽 Biofuels: US = 37%, Brazil = 22%
#energy #oott #natgas #coal #China
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📈 Gold–Oil Price Ratio Reaches Record High in 2025
The gold–oil price ratio—a measure of gold’s value relative to oil—hit an all-time high annual average of 51 barrels per ounce in 2025, roughly double its level in the 1960s.
#energy #fuels #petroleum #shale #oil #crude #OilPrice #OOTT #OPEC #WTI #gold #GoldPrice
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The gold–oil price ratio—a measure of gold’s value relative to oil—hit an all-time high annual average of 51 barrels per ounce in 2025, roughly double its level in the 1960s.
#energy #fuels #petroleum #shale #oil #crude #OilPrice #OOTT #OPEC #WTI #gold #GoldPrice
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⚠️ The Valuation Gap Is Getting Hard to Ignore
Europe vs the US supermajors
The numbers:
• Shell $224B
• #TotalEnergies $165B
• bp $103B
→ $492B combined
Now compare:
• #ExxonMobil $617B
• #Chevron $360B
This is strategy and perception.
• US majors priced for cash flow and discipline
• European majors discounted for complexity and mixed signals
💰Capital rewards clarity, not narrative
#OOTT
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Europe vs the US supermajors
The numbers:
• Shell $224B
• #TotalEnergies $165B
• bp $103B
→ $492B combined
Now compare:
• #ExxonMobil $617B
• #Chevron $360B
This is strategy and perception.
• US majors priced for cash flow and discipline
• European majors discounted for complexity and mixed signals
💰Capital rewards clarity, not narrative
#OOTT
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#USIranStandoff
‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has seized 2 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and detained roughly 15 foreign crew members.
The seizures took place amid heightened tension after Washington dispatched a naval group to the region after Tehran’s deadly response to anti-government protests.
#oott #Iran
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‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has seized 2 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and detained roughly 15 foreign crew members.
The seizures took place amid heightened tension after Washington dispatched a naval group to the region after Tehran’s deadly response to anti-government protests.
#oott #Iran
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💰 How Chevron REALLY made money in 2025
Not price
Execution
The stats:
• $189B revenue -7% YoY
• $12B net income -30% YoY
• $13B upstream profit did the heavy lifting
• $108B spent on crude
• $33B operating costs
What mattered?
• US + International upstream paid the bills
• Downstream added just $3B
• Everything else lost money
Big Oil isn’t a price trade anymore.
It’s a discipline trade.
#oott #chevron
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Not price
Execution
The stats:
• $189B revenue -7% YoY
• $12B net income -30% YoY
• $13B upstream profit did the heavy lifting
• $108B spent on crude
• $33B operating costs
What mattered?
• US + International upstream paid the bills
• Downstream added just $3B
• Everything else lost money
Big Oil isn’t a price trade anymore.
It’s a discipline trade.
#oott #chevron
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