Is Toncoin (TON) Finally Reversing — or Is This Just Another Bull Trap?
After weeks of bearish pressure, Toncoin (TON) is starting to challenge the dominant narrative. On Wednesday, TON successfully broke and closed above a descending wedge pattern, a classic technical structure that often signals a potential trend reversal. By Thursday, price continued to stabilize around $1.51, suggesting buyers are gradually regaining control.
From a technical perspective, the breakout shifts short-term market structure in favor of the bulls. If TON can maintain momentum above the former wedge resistance, price may extend its recovery toward the December 10 high near $1.70, which now stands as a key short-term resistance zone.
Momentum indicators support this recovery scenario. The daily RSI is currently around 44 and trending upward toward the neutral 50 level, indicating that selling pressure is fading. A confirmed push above 50 would further strengthen bullish conviction. Meanwhile, the MACD has printed a bullish crossover since Tuesday, reinforcing the case for short-term upside continuation.
However, downside risks have not disappeared. If TON fails to sustain the breakout and faces renewed selling pressure, price could pull back toward the daily support near $1.43, a level expected to attract defensive buying interest. A breakdown below this area would weaken the recovery thesis and shift focus back to range consolidation.
Sample trade idea (educational purposes only):
Buy Entry: $1.48 – $1.52
Stop Loss: $1.40
Take Profit 1: $1.60
Take Profit 2: $1.70
Toncoin is at a technical crossroads. Whether this move develops into a sustained reversal or fades into consolidation will depend on follow-through, volume confirmation, and broader market conditions.
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