usdollar

The euro recovered modest ground against the US dollar, with EUR/USD paring earlier losses after the release of weaker-than-expected US PMI data weighed on the greenback.

Initially under pressure, the euro found support as the US dollar retreated in response to softer business activity indicators. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures signaled a slowdown in the US economy, raising concerns about the strength of near-term growth and tempering expectations for prolonged monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The pullback in the dollar allowed EUR/USD to rebound from intraday lows, although gains remained limited as broader market sentiment stayed cautious. Investors continue to weigh diverging economic outlooks between the Eurozone and the United States, alongside evolving central bank expectations.

Market participants are increasingly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data, particularly indicators that could influence interest rate trajectories. The weaker PMI reading has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more measured approach in upcoming policy decisions, reducing immediate upside pressure on the dollar.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is attempting to stabilize after recent declines, with buyers stepping in near key support levels. However, the pair still faces resistance overhead, suggesting that a sustained recovery will require stronger bullish catalysts.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on additional economic releases, including inflation data and central bank commentary, to gauge the next directional move. While the euro’s rebound offers short-term relief, uncertainty remains high, and price action may stay volatile in the near term.

#EURUSD #ForexNews #Euro #USDollar #Sign $SIGN @SignOfficial

The Dollar has retreated in the face of Trump

Rumours of US-Iran talks have sent the $EUR /USD pair 1.2% up.

Oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

The markets risk repeating past mistakes. Barely ten days into the conflict in the Middle East, Donald Trump began talking about negotiations with Iran. At that point, US stock indices rose, the dollar weakened, and oil prices fell. Two weeks later, history repeated itself. We heard the same talk from the president about dialogue with Tehran, just as the markets were plummeting and oil was beginning an uncontrolled surge. It seems that Brent's and EURUSD’s previous experiences have taught them nothing.

For Donald Trump, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a fall in oil prices, and the return to the markets of the idea of a cut in the federal funds rate are of the utmost importance. So far, this view is supported only by Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by the President to the FOMC. In his words, the central bank must not be swayed by short-term headlines. Yes, inflation risks have risen, but so have the risks of a cooling labour market.

By contrast, Ostin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has not ruled out either a resumption of the monetary easing cycle or a rise in interest rates. The latter aligns with the expectations of the derivatives market. Derivatives markets anticipate one round of monetary tightening from the Bank of England and two from the ECB. The outperformance of British and German bonds over their US counterparts is driving gains in GBPUSD and EURUSD. The rally in the euro and the pound against the US dollar is being fuelled by an improvement in global risk appetite following Trump’s speeches.

Meanwhile, gold has briefly dipped below $4,100 per ounce. High interest rates and the associated strengthening of fiat currencies are depriving the precious metal of its key trump card – debasement trading. Until signs of a US recession appear on the horizon and the Fed begins to discuss large-scale monetary stimulus, gold is likely to remain under pressure.

The situation is different with oil, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to help. According to Societe Generale and ANZ Research, Brent is unlikely to return quickly to levels of $65–70 per barrel. The main reason cited is a reduction in output by Gulf producers. In other words, the market has moved from a record surplus to a balanced state. Therefore, Brent crude is likely to remain above $85–90, giving the US dollar an advantage as the currency of a net energy exporter.
#EUR
#USDOLLAR
#CryptoMarket
#MarketAnalysis

Gold rebounds from year-to-date lows as Trump delays Iran energy strikes

Gold rebounds on Monday, partly erasing earlier losses that led prices to hit year-to-date lows after a sharp sell-off of nearly 8%.

Gold's rebound came as Trump announced he is postponing planned strikes on Iran's energy facilities after engaging in "productive" conversations with Tehran.

Technically, $XAU
/USD remains bearish even as the RSI shows oversold conditions.

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds from year-to-date lows on Monday as bargain hunting emerges after a steep sell-off, with the metal finding support after news that US President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes against Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure.

At the time of writing, $XAU /USD is trading around $4,350, after briefly sliding below $4,100 during the Asian session, its lowest level since November 2025.

Trump said he had instructed the Department of War to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to the outcome of the ongoing discussions, Reuters reported. The news pushed Crude Oil prices sharply lower, easing inflation concerns and triggering a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields.

This comes after Trump warned over the weekend that Iran’s power infrastructure could be targeted if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within forty-eight hours. In response, Iran threatened retaliation, warning it could target all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and Israel.

The move marks a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions and has lifted market sentiment. However, uncertainty around the conflict remains high and could cap further upside in the metal unless there is a clear de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain elevated despite the intraday pullback, keeping inflation concerns and their economic impact in focus.

As a result, markets are increasingly anticipating that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer, or even consider rate hikes if the war drags on and inflation remains persistent.

The repricing of rate expectations was further supported by last week’s central bank meetings, where policymakers broadly opted to hold rates while emphasizing upside inflation risks and uncertainty tied to the evolving geopolitical backdrop.

Markets have priced out Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts for this year, while in other major economies, expectations for further tightening have strengthened. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Looking ahead, markets will keep a close eye on geopolitical developments for direction. With little US economic data scheduled on Monday, Gold will likely be driven by broader market sentiment and any subsequent war-related announcements.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD rebounds from 200-day SMA, downside risks remain

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has attracted buying interest after bouncing off the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,095, helping preserve the broader uptrend. However, the near-term bias remains slightly bearish as the metal continues to trade below the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, indicating lingering selling pressure.

Momentum indicators reflect this mixed outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 26, suggesting oversold conditions that could support a short-term rebound, while the Average True Range (ATR) remains elevated, pointing to heightened volatility.

On the upside, the $4,500 level acts as immediate resistance, followed by the 100-day SMA around $4,600. A sustained break above this zone could shift focus toward the 50-day SMA near $4,970 and the key psychological $5,000 mark. On the downside, a sustained break below the 200-day SMA may trigger a deeper pullback toward $4,000.
#GOLD_UPDATE
#USDOLLAR
#GoldRebound
#MarketAnalysis

Forex Today: Middle East crisis deepens, Gold plunges to fresh 2026-low

Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 23:

Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, investors will pay close attention to geopolitical headlines on Monday.

Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they will “obliterate” Iran’s power plants, starting with the biggest one, if they refuse to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. In response, Iran warned that it will retaliate and target all US-linked energy infrastructure in the Middle East if the US attacks its power plants. In a statement published on Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed if the US executes threats against its energy facilities, adding that companies with US shares will be completely destroyed.

Meanwhile, citing two sources familiar with the matter, the Jerusalem Post reported early Monday that the US is preparing to launch a ground military operation to seize the Iranian island of Kharg.

After losing about 10% in the previous week, $XAU remains under heavy selling pressure to start the week and trades at its lowest level since December below $4,200, down nearly 7% on the day.

Crude Oil prices push higher in the European session on Monday. At the time of press, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up more than 2% on the day near $100.

The US Dollar (USD) benefits from safe-haven flows and gathers strength against its major rivals early Monday. The USD Index was last seen rising 0.3% on the day at 99.80. In the meantime, US stock index futures stay under heavy pressure, losing between 0.6% and 1% on the day.

$EUR /USD loses traction and trades in the red below 1.1550 in the European session on Monday after having gained more than 1% in the previous week.

GBP/USD continues to push lower after opening with a small bearish gap and trades below 1.3300 on Monday.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Monday that the government considers to take measures on all fronts in foreign exchange (FX) volatility. After rising nearly 1% on Friday, USD/JPY holds its ground and clings to small gains near 159.50.
#XAU #EUR
#crudeoil #USDOLLAR
#forexmarkets

​The Hook: 50 years of USD dominance in the oil markets just faced its most direct challenge yet. 🧱📉
​📍 The Catalyst: Iran’s Yuan Mandate
​Reports are surfacing that Tehran is now demanding oil payments in Chinese Yuan (CNY) as a condition for tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. By bypassing the USD settlement system, Iran isn't just dodging sanctions—they are stress-testing the global demand for the "Petrodollar."
​📉 Macro Impact: DXY Under Pressure
​The reaction in the traditional markets has been swift.
​DXY Performance: The US Dollar Index has slipped below the critical 100.00 handle, currently hovering around 99.62.
​Oil Volatility: With Brent crude recently touching $126 before stabilizing near $100, the market is pricing in a "geopolitical premium" that the USD can no longer suppress through interest rate hikes alone.
​₿ The Crypto Correlation: Bitcoin as the "Anti-Dollar"
​While DXY wobbles, BTC is proving its resilience as a non-sovereign reserve asset.
​Resilience: BTC is holding steady in the $71,000 - $72,000 range despite "Extreme Fear" in broader sentiment.
​The Narrative Shift: We are seeing a massive rotation. Investors are no longer just treating Bitcoin as a "risk-on" asset; they are treating it as a hedge against the fragmentation of the global financial system. When the USD is used as a weapon, decentralized assets become the shield.
​🔮 Forward-Looking Outlook
​The FOMC Factor: All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's next move. If they pivot to save the DXY, they risk crashing the economy. If they stay paused, the USD slide could accelerate.
​Liquidity Migration: Watch for increased BTC / CNY trading volume. As trade shifts to the Yuan, the friction in USD on-ramps may drive more OTC (Over-The-Counter) activity into crypto.
​Authoritative Take: We are in the "Volatility Phase" of de-dollarization. Don't trade the panic—trade the structural shift.
#PetroYuan
#USDollar #OilAndCrypto
$USDT

$USDE /CHF rises as US Dollar hold firms following Fed's steady rate decision
USD/CHF climbs as the US Dollar remains firm despite muted reaction to the Fed interest rate decision.
Fed holds rates steady in 11-1 vote; Governor Stephen Miran dissents in favor of a rate cut.
Swiss growth outlook downgraded as energy prices lift inflation expectations.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/CHF snapping a two-day losing streak as a firmer Greenback lends support. Markets showed a limited reaction to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy announcement, where interest rates were kept unchanged, in line with expectations.

At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7908, up roughly 0.78% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.85, up 0.30% on the day.

The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in an 11-1 vote. Governor Stephen Miran dissented once again, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut.

Policymakers noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also highlighted elevated uncertainty around the economic outlook, particularly linked to developments in the Middle East, and reiterated that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data and the evolving balance of risks.

The Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a modest upgrade to the growth outlook compared with December, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) now seen at 2.4% for 2026, up from 2.3%.

However, inflation forecasts were revised higher, with Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation projected at 2.7%, up from 2.4% previously. The Unemployment Rate projection remained broadly unchanged at 4.4% for 2026.

The median dot plot maintained expectations for one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, with the federal funds rate projected at 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the post-meeting press conference, “Near-term inflation expectations have been up in recent weeks due to developments in the Middle East.” He added, “It is too soon to know the scope and duration of energy market effects on the economy,” while stressing, “If I don’t see inflation progress, you won’t see the rate cut.”

On the Swiss side, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) slightly revised its growth outlook downward, with the economy now expected to expand by 1.0% in 2026, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%, indicating below-average growth.

The downgrade comes as rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions add to inflation pressures, with inflation now expected at 0.4% in 2026, up from 0.2% previously.
#CHF
#usd
#usDollar
#Market_Update