xmr

Monero (XMR) experienced an explosive rally in January, pushing price to a new all-time high near $798. However, the bullish momentum quickly unraveled as Bitcoin (BTC) lost strength, triggering a broad market sell-off. As a result, XMR entered a steep correction, plunging 63.7% in just 22 days.
Despite the sharp decline, social media engagement surrounding Monero surged to unusually high levels. According to insights highlighted by Coinphoton, this spike in attention may have reflected crowd-driven FOMO rather than sustainable demand. At the same time, signals from the spot volume bubble map warned that the market was overheating.
These warnings materialized swiftly. XMR failed to defend its long-term trendline support, opening the door for further downside. Market participants began to eye the $266 region as a potential lower target. On February 6, XMR printed a local low at approximately $276, confirming the depth of the correction.
Sellers Reclaim Control at Key Fibonacci Levels
The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator has fallen to its lowest level in several months, reflecting intense selling pressure over the past three weeks. The combination of heavy volume and aggressive downside movement explains the sharp deterioration in A/D and suggests that short-term recovery potential remains limited.
Further reinforcing the bearish outlook, the 20-day and 50-day moving averages have formed a bearish crossover, ending a four-month bullish structure. Meanwhile, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) confirms the presence of a strong downward trend, with sellers firmly in control.
The final area of hope for bulls emerged around $352, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $230 to $799. However, zones that acted as support just weeks ago have now flipped into heavy supply areas. Notably, XMR’s retest of $352 failed to generate any meaningful bullish reaction, underscoring the strength of selling pressure.
What Traders and Investors Should Expect
Under current conditions, traders and long-term investors should be prepared for continued downside risk in XMR. That said, temporary pauses or range-bound trading phases remain possible, especially if Bitcoin and major altcoins attempt relief rallies within a broader bearish market structure.
Such consolidations would not necessarily indicate a trend reversal, but rather short-term stabilization within an ongoing corrective phase.
Bearish Retest Zones Remain in Focus
The parabolic phase of XMR’s rally has officially ended. While a broader Bitcoin recovery could provide short-term support, liquidation heatmap data highlights several key bearish retest zones.
Price levels around $390–$420, followed by the $500 region, stand out as major liquidity magnets. Any approach toward these zones could attract renewed selling interest, potentially triggering another leg lower as sellers look to defend overhead resistance.
As long as supply continues to dominate and XMR remains below critical structural levels, downside risk remains the primary market theme.
Market Structure Takes Priority Over Narrative
While Monero’s privacy-focused narrative and strong community engagement remain intact, price action continues to be dictated by market structure rather than sentiment. The failure to hold long-term support, coupled with weakening momentum indicators and aggressive distribution, suggests that caution remains warranted.
Until XMR can reclaim key resistance levels with confirmation from volume and momentum, the probability of a sustained bullish reversal remains low.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and represents personal market analysis based on publicly available data. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses.
👉 Follow for more crypto market analysis, technical breakdowns, and objective price action insights.
#CryptoNews #Monero #XMR