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Funding rates at 2023 lows signal the market is heavily short against bitcoin, ZeroStack's Daniel Reis-Faria says, setting up conditions for a forced unwind if prices push higher.
The MSCI All Country World Index closed at a record high Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia. The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 after President Donald Trump said prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were "looking very good."
Trump claimed, without evidence, that Tehran had agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions, turn over nuclear material, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the deal. Iran has not confirmed those concessions.
A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced separately on Thursday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming the truce in a video message. Markets are trading the headlines as if the deal is closer than it is, which is part of why equities have unwound most of the war premium while crude remains near $98 and the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut.
However, the setup underneath the flat bitcoin price action is what some traders are paying attention to.
Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative in recent sessions, reaching levels last seen in 2023. Funding is the periodic payment perpetual futures traders exchange with each other to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When it goes negative, shorts are paying longs, which only happens when the market is heavily positioned against price.
Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short," Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. "If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly."
Reis-Faria expects bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out.
The contrarian read from on-chain analyst CryptoVizArt is that bitcoin's "True Market Mean," a metric that estimates the average cost basis of active investors by filtering out lost and dormant coins, suggests the average active holder is currently underwater.
Since 2016, meaningful stretches below the True Market Mean have aligned with bitcoin's worst periods, including the 2018-19 bear (-57% max drawdown, 282 days) and the 2022-23 unwind after the Luna and FTX collapses (-56%, 339 days).
The two reads do not have to be in conflict. A short squeeze from negative funding and a structural drawdown from underwater holders can both be true, with the former triggering the kind of outsized rally that ultimately gets sold into by the latter.
Which scenario dominates likely depends on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension holds past next week.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA), a global energy watchdog, with several of the wealthiest countries as member nations, has announced the largest release of government oil reserves in its history, two weeks after the United States and Israel started their war on Iran with strikes on Tehran.
In retaliatory attacks, Tehran has launched strikes on Israel as well as US military assets and energy facilities in Gulf countries, and has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery in the global oil supply chain, driving up crude prices to more than $100 per barrel.
“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA said in its monthly market report.
While the IEA’s 32 member nations appeared hesitant earlier in the week to tap into the strategic reserves, they ultimately announced they would release nearly 400 million barrels of emergency crude. That’s one-third of the grouping’s total holding of 1.2 billion barrels of government reserves
Previously, IEA member nations have released oil from emergency reserves five times: During the 1990-1991 Gulf War; after Hurricane Katrina in 2005; during the Libyan civil war in 2011; and twice after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But is this latest release sufficient to calm down the disrupted market?
The energy watchdog argued that the supply shock triggered by Iran’s strikes on cargo vessels and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz meant energy markets are facing a worse crisis than during the Gulf War of 1991 and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine
Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran – and assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – on February 28, Brent crude was trading at about $65 per barrel. Now, it is above $100, and Iranian leaders have warned countries that it will not allow “one litre of oil” to pass the Hormuz Strait if attacks continue, and that the price could go above $200 per barrel
Earlier this week, former IMF economist Olivier Blanchard was quoted by news outlet Business Insider that this could be possible if tankers carrying oil cannot be protected from Iranian attacks. “I find it hard not to have as a central scenario where oil prices will remain very high for a long time, higher than the market current prices,” Blanchard said on Thursday.
The IEA’s announcement of a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil is much higher than the 2022 release of 182 million barrels of oil by the group’s members after Russia invaded Ukraine
“Energy security is the founding mandate of the IEA, and I am pleased that IEA members are showing strong solidarity in taking decisive action together,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA
Birol applauded the member nations’ decision to contribute to the release from their strategic reserves. “This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” Birol said. “But, to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz
About one-fifth of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s more than 20 million barrels daily on average. And coordinated IEA releases are usually spread over weeks or months, meaning only a portion of the 400 million planned barrels will be released in the short term
The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil that was already loaded and at sea, amounting to roughly 100 million barrels, in an effort to quickly add supply to global markets.
The administration is also considering temporarily waiving the Jones Act, a US maritime law requiring goods shipped between domestic ports to be carried on US-built and US-crewed vessels, aiming to ease domestic supply bottlenecks
However, a White House spokesperson said this has not been finalised yet.
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Islamabad, Pakistan – On April 11, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shook hands with United States Vice President JD Vance, guiding him to a seat for talks on the sidelines of the highest-level direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
At almost the same time, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense made a very different announcement.
In a statement carried by the state-owned Saudi Press Agency, Riyadh confirmed the arrival of a Pakistani military force at King Abdulaziz Air Base in the kingdom’s Eastern Province under the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed last year.
The statement said the deployment included fighter and support aircraft from the Pakistan Air Force, aimed at strengthening joint military coordination and raising operational readiness between the two countries.
In the two days that have passed since then, Pakistan’s government has made no official statement about the development. The military’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Ministry of Information, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment sent by Al Jazeera
The Saudi announcement immediately underscored Pakistan’s delicate juggling act in the middle of a war that has destabilised the global economy, led to attacks and deaths in multiple countries and has now led to a high-stakes escalation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
On the one hand, Islamabad has been a central mediator between the US and Iran, hosting their teams last Saturday, and driving attempts to get them to continue with talks after the breakdown in their negotiations.
On the other hand, the SMDA represents a commitment from Pakistan to militarily assist a key ally that was repeatedly hit by Iran before the ceasefire – with Tehran offering no guarantees it will not strike Saudi Arabia or other Gulf nations again.
For now, Pakistani officials said, they can manage both roles.
A Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Islamabad remains committed to facilitating the process for as many rounds as required, adding that diplomatic contact between all sides continues.
Sharif is expected to travel to Saudi Arabia in the coming days, with visits to other regional countries, including Turkiye, also likely as Islamabad seeks to sustain diplomatic momentum before the ceasefire deadline
But with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports now in effect and the ceasefire Islamabad brokered between Washington and Tehran set to expire on April 22, Pakistan’s balancing act could become more complicated.
A day before the Islamabad talks opened, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan made a brief visit to Islamabad, calling on PM Sharif at the prime minister’s House. Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir were also present
According to an official statement, Sharif expressed appreciation for Riyadh’s “longstanding economic and financial support” to Pakistan, which he said had played a vital role in stabilising the country’s economy
The visit underscored the breadth of the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, spanning defence, diplomacy and finance
The SMDA was signed on September 17, 2025, at Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sharif, with Munir also in attendance. It commits both countries to treating any act of aggression against one as an act against
Pakistan’s position on the agreement has remained consistent.
Addressing the Senate on March 3, three days after the war began, Dar said plainly that Pakistan had a defence pact with Saudi Arabia “and the whole world knows about it
He added that he had personally conveyed Pakistan’s obligations under the pact to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, making clear what the agreement entailed.
Sharif similarly pledged that Pakistan would stand by the kingdom and its people
What remains unclear is under what specific conditions either Pakistan or Saudi Arabia are expected to come to the other’s defence. Would one of them need to declare that they are at war with another country? Would either of them need to specifically request the other to join a military intervention? Has Saudi Arabia so far refrained from formally asking Pakistan to come to its defence
Analysts say the steps taken so far by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to demonstrate that the SMDA is in operation are aimed at sending clear messages to other countries – even as the ambiguity over the specific contents of the deal itself serves as a deterrent. An enemy of Saudi Arabia, for instance, will not know exactly when it will also need to contend with Pakistan’s military
To be clear, Pakistan’s military presence in the Arab world is longstanding. Pakistani pilots flew for Arab air forces during the 1967 Six-Day War, and Pakistani forces have been deployed across the Middle East in various roles since the 1960s
In Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has trained thousands of military personnel since 1967. A formal agreement in 1982 institutionalised the deployment of Pakistani armed forces personnel for training purposes
During the 1970s and 1980s, Pakistani troops were stationed in significant numbers in the kingdom, including to protect oil infrastructure in the Eastern Province, the same region where the current deployment is based
Still, the SMDA is the first pact that formally commits Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to treating an attack on one as an attack on the other
A second call followed on April 13, focusing on regional developments and the outcome of the Islamabad talks.
Analysts say the continued contact suggests both sides have an interest in keeping communication lines open, regardless of military positioning.
Iranian scepticism of Pakistan, if any, can at least be offset by the certainty that Pakistan will prioritise the stability of the region over other interests,” Cheema said.
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