copper

If you’ve been following the "copper supercycle" narrative, you know the vibe has been pretty electric lately. We’ve seen record highs, talk of massive shortages and a "buy everything" mentality driven by the green energy transition.
But Goldman Sachs just tapped the brakes. In their latest update, they’ve shifted their 2026 outlook and it’s a classic case of high prices being their own best cure.
Here’s the breakdown of what’s changing and why the "supply gap" isn’t hitting quite as hard as we expected.
1. The Numbers: From Scarcity to Surplus
Earlier this year, the narrative was all about deficits. Now, Goldman has revised their 2026 global copper surplus forecast to 300,000 tonnes, up significantly from their previous estimate of 160,000 tonnes.
For context, they also bumped their 2025 surplus estimate to a whopping 500,000 tonnes.

What does this mean for the price?
Goldman expects copper to cool off from its recent peaks, targeting around $11,000 per metric tonne by the end of 2026 roughly an 18% drop from the highs we saw earlier this year.
2. Why the Shift? (The "Human" Factors)
Markets aren't just spreadsheets they react to people and policy. Three things are driving this surplus:
The Scrap Response: When copper prices shot past $12,000, people didn't just keep buying they started digging through the "junk drawer." High prices incentivized a massive wave of recycling and scrap recovery, which effectively acted as a "shadow mine" bringing more supply to the market than expected.
The "EV Diet": We’ve heard for years that EVs need tons of copper. That’s still true, but engineers are getting efficient. Newer EV models are being designed with lower "copper intensity" basically finding ways to use less of the red metal to keep costs down.
The Tariff Factor: There’s a lot of talk about a potential 15% U.S. tariff on refined copper. This led to a massive bout of "front-running" or stockpiling in late 2025 and early 2026. Once that stockpiling ends and the policy becomes clear, that artificial demand disappears, leaving the market with plenty of extra metal sitting in warehouses.
3. Is the Bull Run Over?
Not exactly. It’s more of a breather than a collapse.
Goldman is still very bullish on the long-term. They view this 2025–2026 surplus as a "transient condition." While we have enough copper right now because of scrap and efficiency, the long-term structural problems haven't gone away.

Ore grades are still falling (it’s getting harder to find high-quality rock).
New mines take 10+ years to permit and build.
The Grid is the new EV: Power infrastructure and data centers (hello, AI) are projected to drive 60% of copper demand growth through 2030.
Goldman is essentially saying, "The party got a little too loud, too fast." By 2026, the market will be better balanced, prices will likely settle into a more sustainable range ($10,000–$11,000) and the "scarcity premium" will fade at least until the next big demand wave hits.
#Copper #GoldManSachs #RedMetal #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergyRevolution $SOL $BTC $ETH

Пока интернет-провайдеры «бреют» мои стримы, мировые рынки готовятся к настоящему землетрясению. JUST IN: Саудовская Аравия вывела свой трубопровод «Восток-Запад» в обход заблокированного Ормузского пролива на абсолютный максимум — 7 000 000 баррелей в сутки.
Это не просто новость, это сигнал «SOS» для всей мировой финансовой системы. И вот почему.

🔍 Разбор TradFi на пальцах (что будет в понедельник):
Нефть (Brent/WTI): Ложный спаситель
Рынок может открыться «гэпом» вниз или замереть на оптимизме. Но это ловушка для медведей. 7 млн баррелей — это лишь треть того объема, который шел через пролив (15-20 млн). Блокада пролива продолжается. Дефицит ресурсов никуда не делся. Мой прогноз по нефти остается $100-108+. Любой откат — это подарок для покупок.Металлы (Copper/XAG): Мои фавориты
Copper (Медь): Работа трубопровода на пределе — это гигантская нагрузка на инфраструктуру и логистику. Рост цен на энергоносители в Европе и Азии из-за блокады пролива продолжит толкать медь вверх. Мой сетап на лонг меди в силе.XAG (Серебро): В моменты такого хаоса капитал всегда бежит в защитные активы. Саудиты готовятся к долгой блокаде. Серебро на этом фоне — это ракета.
Инфляция и Крипта
Для ФРС это худший сценарий. Дорогая нефть = высокая инфляция = ставки не будут снижать. А значит, давление на рынки акций усилится. В этой ситуации Биткоин как «цифровое золото» и защитные металлы — единственные тихие гавани.
💡 Мой вывод:
Саудовская Аравия пытается «потушить пожар бензином». В понедельник мы увидим дикую волатильность. Умные деньги уже заняли позиции в реальных активах (нефть, медь, серебро, BTC) и спокойно наблюдают за паникой хомяков.
А пока интернет чинится, я готовлю для вас расширенный разбор сетапов TradFi. Мы не просто выживем в этой «жопе мира», мы на ней заработаем!
👇 Вопрос к вам: Верите, что 7 млн баррелей спасут рынок, или это начало конца старой системы? Пишите в комментах!
#Oil #TradFi #XAG #Copper $XAG $COPPER

In 2013, I bought Bitcoin because I saw a mathematical scarcity the world wasn't pricing in. Today, I’m seeing that same "supply cliff" elsewhere—but this time, it’s not made of code. It’s made of Copper.

Over the last 60 days, I have moved into 3+ tonnes of physical copper. I’ve even rented dedicated storage for it. This isn't a "swing trade"—it is a generational positioning for the AI and Energy revolution.
⚡ The AI Energy Shock
The world is focused on AI software, but they are ignoring the hardware bottleneck.
Data Centers: AI chips are power-hungry monsters. By 2040, global data center capacity is projected to grow 10x.
The Grid: You cannot run a 2040 economy on a 1970s grid. Rebuilding the world’s electricity infrastructure requires massive amounts of copper for transformers, wiring, and high-density liquid cooling.
📉 The "Bitcoin" Supply Dynamics
The math for copper is becoming as certain as a halving event:
The Lead Time: It takes 17–20 years to bring a new copper mine online. Even if we found a massive deposit today, it wouldn’t hit the market until the 2040s.
Declining Grades: We are digging deeper for less metal. The "easy" copper is gone.
The Deficit: Analysts forecast a multi-million-ton annual deficit by 2030. You can print more fiat, but you cannot "print" more copper.
🏗️ Physical Scarcity > Financial Abstractions
I’m skipping mining stocks. Equities are just paper layered with political risk and management games. I want the commodity itself.
In a world of unlimited digital printing and AI-generated content, constrained matter is the ultimate store of value. When the squeeze hits, manufacturers won't care about the price—they will pay anything to keep their factories from shutting down.
The gift is the current price. The panic comes when the inventories hit zero.
I’ll see you in 2030. 🥂
$BTC
#Copper #commodities #AI #EnergyCrisis #Investing2026

Dmitry Tokarev, founder of Copper, has launched a new venture called Bron Labs — a self-custody platform designed to enhance the safety of digital asset management for both retail and professional users. 💼🔒
Bron Labs recently secured $15 million in funding from investors including LocalGlobe, Fasanara Digital, and GSR.
At the same time, Copper has appointed former Goldman Sachs Managing Director Amar Kuchinad as its new CEO, signaling a new phase of growth and leadership for the company.

The crypto industry is clearly stepping up its game in security and trust. 🚀 #SecurityAlert #CopyTradingDiscover #Copytrading #Copper #SelfCustody