fedwatch

Crypto investors are shifting focus to the March FOMC meeting as expectations for a rate cut rise to 52%, potentially sparking a fresh risk-on rally for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Interest rate expectations for the January meeting suggest a “dovish pause,” keeping the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%.Traders are pricing in a 52% probability of a rate cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, according to prediction market data.Bitcoin remains rangebound near $88,000, with market sentiment stuck in “Fear” territory as participants await Jerome Powell’s 2026 policy guidance.
As the Federal Reserve concludes its first policy gathering of 2026, the cryptocurrency market has entered a period of macro-driven suspense, with the upcoming March FOMC meeting emerging as the primary decider for the industry’s short-term direction. While the consensus among economists is a hold on interest rates this week, the prospect of the Fed signaling a faster rate-cutting cycle later this quarter has traders preparing for a potential return of retail-driven liquidity.
Following a volatile end to 2025 that saw Bitcoin retreat nearly 30% from its October highs, the market has struggled to reclaim its momentum. Current data suggests that liquidity conditions remain the dominant factor for digital assets. “The Fed’s interest rate decision is one of the main catalysts for the crypto space in 2026,” noted Owen Lau, managing director at Clear Street. According to Lau, both retail and institutional investors are likely to show increased appetite for risk assets if the central bank continues to ease monetary policy.
The market is currently split on the Fed’s trajectory for the remainder of the year. While the CME FedWatch Tool and platforms like Polymarket indicate only a marginal chance of a cut in January, the odds for a March reduction have climbed significantly. Analysts at TD Securities suggest that while Chair Jerome Powell may sound noncommittal in the near term, the median Fed official still favors easing this year to manage labor market softening. Such a shift would be a boon for Bitcoin, which has historically thrived in environments of expanding global liquidity.
Conversely, a more hawkish stance—driven by concerns over sticky inflation or geopolitical tariff impacts—could dampen hopes for a spring rally. A failure to signal cuts in March might lead to a prolonged period of short-term volatility and a further test of support levels near the $85,000 mark. Some institutional reports, including those from Coinbase Institutional, suggest the market is currently in a “risk-defense” mode, with investors prioritizing options hedging over aggressive leverage.
Ultimately, the crypto market’s ability to break out of its current range depends on whether the Fed prioritizes economic growth over inflation targets. If the March meeting confirms a transition back to a simultaneous easing cycle, the “four-year cycle” narrative may see a resurgence, potentially pushing digital asset valuations toward new records in the first half of 2026.
#fedwatch

$BTC $ETH This week’s key US economic events—including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Chair Powell's press conference, earnings reports from major tech firms, initial jobless claims, and December Producer Price Index (PPI) data—are set to significantly influence the prices of Bitcoin, gold, and silver. The Fed is expected to maintain rates steady, but Powell’s tone about inflation and economic outlook will be critical in guiding future rate expectations. Bitcoin tends to benefit from rate cuts and dovish signals, while gold and silver, as inflation hedges, react strongly to inflation data and rate changes. The tech earnings results could affect overall market risk sentiment, which is closely correlated to Bitcoin’s price movements.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment is marked by cautious optimism, with the market pricing in a near-certain rate hold but awaiting Powell's guidance for the future. This creates a conditional environment where hope for dovish policy supports Bitcoin and precious metals, but anxiety remains about persistent inflation potentially triggering hawkish Fed actions. Social media and analyst commentary emphasize close attention to jobless claims and PPI data, as these could shift market expectations rapidly. The stalled Bitcoin price juxtaposed with soaring gold and silver prices reflects the current risk-on versus safe-haven sentiment divide.
Past & Future Forecast
-Past: Historically, Bitcoin rallies have coincided with Fed easing cycles, such as post-2020 monetary easing, where lower interest rates and liquidity boosts led to significant crypto gains. Similarly, gold and silver have risen during periods of declining rates and rising inflation fears, like during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent quantitative easing periods.
-Future: If Powell signals prolonged steady or lower rates, Bitcoin could gain momentum, potentially rising beyond current $88,000 levels. Conversely, hawkish rhetoric may cause corrections. Inflation readings stronger than expected could pressure gold and silver despite recent surges, potentially retracing some gains. Earnings beats from tech giants may lift overall risk appetite, indirectly boosting Bitcoin, while disappointments could increase volatility and safe-haven demand.
The Effect
The confluence of these US economic indicators can lead to amplified market volatility across cryptocurrencies, precious metals, and equities. A hawkish Fed stance combined with strong labor and inflation data could suppress risk assets, triggering liquidity withdrawal from crypto and metals. Conversely, dovish signals could restore risk appetite and fuel multi-asset rallies. The government shutdown risk adds geopolitical uncertainty, potentially increasing safe-haven demand. This week’s events collectively pose moderate systemic risk that could cascade between markets, emphasizing the importance of close monitoring.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: The prevailing expectation of a Fed rate hold creates a neutral baseline, while Powell's accompanying statements and upcoming economic data introduce uncertainty. Bitcoin, gold, and silver carry balanced upside and downside risks this week amid mixed signals.
- Execution Strategy: Maintain current positions and avoid initiating sizable new trades until clearer direction emerges from the Fed commentary and economic releases. Use technical monitoring for support and resistance, and watch for volume spikes and volatility changes around event times.
- Risk Management Strategy: Employ trailing stop-loss orders to protect gains in all three assets and consider minor portfolio rebalancing to hedge against unexpected volatility. Stay diversified to mitigate risk across sectors.
- Additional Considerations: Closely track tech earnings and jobless claims as risk sentiment barometers that may influence crypto indirectly. Should the economic data surprise significantly, be prepared to adjust exposure accordingly—either adding to positions on confirmed easing signals or trimming on hawkish surprises.
This disciplined, observant approach aligns with institutional investors' risk-averse yet opportunity-seeking tactics, prioritizing capital preservation while remaining positioned to capitalize on confirmed market trends.#fedwatch #USEconomicNews #USEconomicUpdate

🚨 99% OF PEOPLE WILL BE SHOCKED BY THIS INFORMATION!!!
🛢️Venezuela Has The Largest Proven Oil Reserves On Earth —
Around 303 Billion Barrels According To Global Energy Data.
This Means Venezuela Holds More Proven Crude Than Any Other Country —
About 17% Of The World’s Total Reserves.

President Trump Has Announced Plans To Rebuild Venezuela’s Oil Sector
And Direct A Portion Of Future Oil Revenue Toward U.S. And Venezuelan Interests.

The U.S. Is Also Allowing Venezuela’s Oil To Be Sold At Fair Market Rates,
Potentially Redirecting Some Exports Away From Prior Trade Flows.
Venezuela’s Oil Exports Have Historically Gone To China And Other Buyers,
But New Policies Could Change Global Energy Supply Lines.

Even With Vast Reserves, Venezuela’s Production Has Been Limited
Due To Sanctions, Investment Issues, And Infrastructure Challenges.

Despite Large Reserves, Daily Output Remains Well Below Past Peaks,
Showing How Complex Energy Control And Production Really Is.

⚠️This Situation Is A Significant Development In Global Energy Markets.
Oil, Currency Flows, And Trade Relationships All React To Long-Term Supply Expectations.
Positioning For Shifts In Energy Policy And Resource Access
Can Influence Market Dynamics Across Commodities And Financial Assets.
#USIranStandoff
#StrategyBTCPurchase
#FedWatch
$BTC

THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE IS INEVITABLE! And it's already happening RIGHT NOW!

USD lost about 13% of its value during 2025.

Why? Because they've lost the lead.

That one fact explains a lot.

Because when the currency bleeds like that, everything else is just the next chapter.

Shutdown.Debt.Repo stress.De dollarization.

It's all connected. Now look at what's happening.The government is days away from a shutdown, and the White House is in chaos.

Why? Because they lost control AGAIN.

They hate what they can't control, and they know there's no clean fix for the mess that's building.

They'll try to feed you the usual line that "everything is fine". But people don't buy it anymore.

Lies only work for so long. And when the truth finally hits, the crash will be far more violent than if they'd been honest from the start.

THE PATTERNS ARE SCREAMING 2008.

The Fed's emergency repo facility just spiked.
Private lenders are getting tight with each other again.
That's exactly how it looked before Lehman.

The S&P 500 to gold ratio just broke a key support level.
The last time we saw that, risk got smoked.

The Sahm Rule is back in the danger zone.
End of 2025 was already flirting with 0.35% to 0.50%.
THE MATH DOES NOT ADD UP.
Over $800B in commercial real estate debt matures this year.
Rates are still high, and the buildings are worth way less than the loans.
Banks are already pushing this risk out the back door for cheap.

Now add the chaos at the top.

On January 11, 2026, the DOJ opened a criminal investigation into Powell over his testimony on the $2.5B Fed renovations.
Powell's calling it punishment for resisting the White House on rates.

Meanwhile, consumers are cracking.

Credit card delinquencies 90+ days past due are hitting levels not seen since 2011.
Auto loans and credit cards are sliding into serious delinquency.
Some reports show total household debt around $18.5T into late 2025 and early 2026.

And businesses aren't safe either.
Bankruptcy filings are up around 12% year over year going into 2026.
Middle market companies are staring at a wall of debt they can't refinance at these rates.

But the real story is de dollarization.

The USD used to be the undisputed reserve.
Now, in 2026, most trade between Russia, China, and India is settled without it.

With the government unable to handle $1T in interest payments, they're trapped.
Inflate it away, or let the system break.

Basically, THEY HAVE NO PLAN.

I'm not trying to scare you.
I'm warning you so you can survive it.

If you're smart, this is your one shot at generational wealth.

BUT YOU MUST GET RID OF YOUR USD.

The biggest wealth transfer in human history is coming FAST.

I did my job by warning you.
The rest is up to you.

#FedWatch