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While the Middle East burns, Russia is winning🇷🇺
This map tells you exactly how.
Qatar offline, Hormuz dead and Ras Laffan destroyed.
Every desperate LNG buyer just got one new address:
Yamal Arctic Russia.
And Russia has 2 delivery routes ready:
🔵 Northern Sea Route straight to Asia, bypasses everything
🟠 Southern Route through Suez to Europe
No Hormuz exposure.
No Iranian missiles.
No force majeure.
Just Arctic LNG flowing to exactly the countries that
need it most:
🇯🇵 Japan , Hibiki Terminal, Kyushu, already receiving
🇨🇳 China , top priority buyer
🇪🇺 Europe , re-export terminals ready and waiting
And Von der Leyen said "no Russian energy."
That position gets harder to hold every day Qatar stays offline.♟️
Putin said Europe was "lacking brains."
He then watched his main competitor's infrastructure get destroyed.
And started shipping Arctic LNG to fill the gap.
The energy war has a winner emerging in the frozen north. 🧊🛢️
Which countries are winning and losing this crisis?
I break it down in full in my latest article, link here👇
#oott #LNG #Russia
$BTR $RIVER $CYS
This map tells you exactly how.
Qatar offline, Hormuz dead and Ras Laffan destroyed.
Every desperate LNG buyer just got one new address:
Yamal Arctic Russia.
And Russia has 2 delivery routes ready:
🔵 Northern Sea Route straight to Asia, bypasses everything
🟠 Southern Route through Suez to Europe
No Hormuz exposure.
No Iranian missiles.
No force majeure.
Just Arctic LNG flowing to exactly the countries that
need it most:
🇯🇵 Japan , Hibiki Terminal, Kyushu, already receiving
🇨🇳 China , top priority buyer
🇪🇺 Europe , re-export terminals ready and waiting
And Von der Leyen said "no Russian energy."
That position gets harder to hold every day Qatar stays offline.♟️
Putin said Europe was "lacking brains."
He then watched his main competitor's infrastructure get destroyed.
And started shipping Arctic LNG to fill the gap.
The energy war has a winner emerging in the frozen north. 🧊🛢️
Which countries are winning and losing this crisis?
I break it down in full in my latest article, link here👇
#oott #LNG #Russia
$BTR $RIVER $CYS
While the Middle East burns, Russia is winning🇷🇺
This map tells you exactly how.
Qatar offline, Hormuz dead and Ras Laffan destroyed.
Every desperate LNG buyer just got one new address:
Yamal Arctic Russia.
And Russia has 2 delivery routes ready:
🔵 Northern Sea Route straight to Asia, bypasses everything
🟠 Southern Route through Suez to Europe
No Hormuz exposure.
No Iranian missiles.
No force majeure.
Just Arctic LNG flowing to exactly the countries that
need it most:
🇯🇵 Japan , Hibiki Terminal, Kyushu, already receiving
🇨🇳 China , top priority buyer
🇪🇺 Europe , re-export terminals ready and waiting
And Von der Leyen said "no Russian energy."
That position gets harder to hold every day Qatar stays offline.♟️
Putin said Europe was "lacking brains."
He then watched his main competitor's infrastructure get destroyed.
And started shipping Arctic LNG to fill the gap.
The energy war has a winner emerging in the frozen north. 🧊🛢️
Which countries are winning and losing this crisis?
I break it down in full in my latest article, link here
👇
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#oott #LNG #Russia
This map tells you exactly how.
Qatar offline, Hormuz dead and Ras Laffan destroyed.
Every desperate LNG buyer just got one new address:
Yamal Arctic Russia.
And Russia has 2 delivery routes ready:
🔵 Northern Sea Route straight to Asia, bypasses everything
🟠 Southern Route through Suez to Europe
No Hormuz exposure.
No Iranian missiles.
No force majeure.
Just Arctic LNG flowing to exactly the countries that
need it most:
🇯🇵 Japan , Hibiki Terminal, Kyushu, already receiving
🇨🇳 China , top priority buyer
🇪🇺 Europe , re-export terminals ready and waiting
And Von der Leyen said "no Russian energy."
That position gets harder to hold every day Qatar stays offline.♟️
Putin said Europe was "lacking brains."
He then watched his main competitor's infrastructure get destroyed.
And started shipping Arctic LNG to fill the gap.
The energy war has a winner emerging in the frozen north. 🧊🛢️
Which countries are winning and losing this crisis?
I break it down in full in my latest article, link here
👇
follow like share
#oott #LNG #Russia
🛢️ $2.8 TRILLION In Oil Giants
⚠️ But The Closing of Hormuz Is Rewriting The Winners
🔴 Who’s Losing?
-🇸🇦 Aramco ($1.73T)
Largest in the world. But constrained.
• Ras Tanura partially offline
• Hormuz disruption blocks core export routes
• Petroline (~5 mb/d) cannot replace Gulf flows
➡️ Capacity exists. But cannot reach the market.
-🇨🇳 PetroChina ($342B) & 🇨🇳 CNOOC ($186B)
Scale without flexibility.
• China demand: 16.4 mb/d
• 38% of Hormuz crude flows to China
• Refineries depend on Middle East sour grades
- 🇮🇳 Reliance ($201B)
Refining giant, Import trapped.
• India demand: 5.6 mb/d
• Heavy reliance on Gulf barrels
• Strategic reserves: 74 days
➡️ Strong assets. Weak supply security.
🟢 Who’s Winning?
-🇺🇸 ExxonMobil ($659B)
Short-term hit. Long-term positioning.
• Exposure to Qatar LNG disruptions
• But US LNG running at max capacity
• New capacity 2026–2027 ramping
➡️ Qatar offline = US LNG fills the gap
-🇺🇸 Chevron ($402B)
Clean exposure.
• No meaningful Hormuz dependency
• US production unconstrained
• Benefits directly from higher prices
➡️ Pure leverage to the upside.
-🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips ($154B)
• US-centric production
• Zero Gulf exposure
• Fully exposed to price upside
➡️ No chokepoint risk,Full price exposure.
This crisis measures where your barrels are.
And right now Geography > Size
If Hormuz stays constrained.
The winners are not the biggest.
They are the most independent.
📩 I break down what this means for markets in my latest article, link👇
#OOTT
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⚠️ But The Closing of Hormuz Is Rewriting The Winners
🔴 Who’s Losing?
-🇸🇦 Aramco ($1.73T)
Largest in the world. But constrained.
• Ras Tanura partially offline
• Hormuz disruption blocks core export routes
• Petroline (~5 mb/d) cannot replace Gulf flows
➡️ Capacity exists. But cannot reach the market.
-🇨🇳 PetroChina ($342B) & 🇨🇳 CNOOC ($186B)
Scale without flexibility.
• China demand: 16.4 mb/d
• 38% of Hormuz crude flows to China
• Refineries depend on Middle East sour grades
- 🇮🇳 Reliance ($201B)
Refining giant, Import trapped.
• India demand: 5.6 mb/d
• Heavy reliance on Gulf barrels
• Strategic reserves: 74 days
➡️ Strong assets. Weak supply security.
🟢 Who’s Winning?
-🇺🇸 ExxonMobil ($659B)
Short-term hit. Long-term positioning.
• Exposure to Qatar LNG disruptions
• But US LNG running at max capacity
• New capacity 2026–2027 ramping
➡️ Qatar offline = US LNG fills the gap
-🇺🇸 Chevron ($402B)
Clean exposure.
• No meaningful Hormuz dependency
• US production unconstrained
• Benefits directly from higher prices
➡️ Pure leverage to the upside.
-🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips ($154B)
• US-centric production
• Zero Gulf exposure
• Fully exposed to price upside
➡️ No chokepoint risk,Full price exposure.
This crisis measures where your barrels are.
And right now Geography > Size
If Hormuz stays constrained.
The winners are not the biggest.
They are the most independent.
📩 I break down what this means for markets in my latest article, link👇
#OOTT
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🛢️ Saudi Aramco
Who Controls It And Why It Matters Now
Ownership structure:
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Government: ~81–82%
• 🏦 PIF (sovereign fund): ~12–16%
• 📊 Public investors: <2%
➡️ 98% state controlled
With Hormuz disrupted and regional infrastructure under attack:
• aramco is state strategy
• Decisions = political + economic, not purely commercial
• Saudi can reroute via East-West pipeline (Red Sea)
⚠️ Reality check:
• Total pipeline capacity << Hormuz flows (20 mb/d)
• Refineries + terminals still exposed to attacks
• Recent strikes show infrastructure risk is rising
Saudi Arabia controls Aramco.
But it doesn’t control the chokepoint.
If Hormuz stays constrained, even Aramco’s system becomes a partial workaround, not a solution.
#OOTT
$EDGE $UAI $PHA
Who Controls It And Why It Matters Now
Ownership structure:
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Government: ~81–82%
• 🏦 PIF (sovereign fund): ~12–16%
• 📊 Public investors: <2%
➡️ 98% state controlled
With Hormuz disrupted and regional infrastructure under attack:
• aramco is state strategy
• Decisions = political + economic, not purely commercial
• Saudi can reroute via East-West pipeline (Red Sea)
⚠️ Reality check:
• Total pipeline capacity << Hormuz flows (20 mb/d)
• Refineries + terminals still exposed to attacks
• Recent strikes show infrastructure risk is rising
Saudi Arabia controls Aramco.
But it doesn’t control the chokepoint.
If Hormuz stays constrained, even Aramco’s system becomes a partial workaround, not a solution.
#OOTT
$EDGE $UAI $PHA
This chart is the entire war story in one image💥
Mapped directly onto oil prices🛢️
See that pink exploding in March?
That's pure geopolitical fear.
That pink bar has nowhere to go but up📈🛢️
This is no longer an energy market
It's a war market ♟️
#OOTT
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Mapped directly onto oil prices🛢️
See that pink exploding in March?
That's pure geopolitical fear.
That pink bar has nowhere to go but up📈🛢️
This is no longer an energy market
It's a war market ♟️
#OOTT
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This chart captures the entire war narrative in a single snapshot 💥
Layered over oil prices 🛢️, it tells a deeper story.
Notice the sharp surge in March — that spike reflects raw geopolitical tension.
That momentum isn’t random; it’s driven by fear, and it’s building.
That upward pressure on oil isn’t easing anytime soon 📈🛢️
At this point, it’s not just about supply and demand anymore.
This isn’t just an energy market now — it’s a war-driven market ♟️
#OOTT
Layered over oil prices 🛢️, it tells a deeper story.
Notice the sharp surge in March — that spike reflects raw geopolitical tension.
That momentum isn’t random; it’s driven by fear, and it’s building.
That upward pressure on oil isn’t easing anytime soon 📈🛢️
At this point, it’s not just about supply and demand anymore.
This isn’t just an energy market now — it’s a war-driven market ♟️
#OOTT
Saudi Aramco just lost 500,000 barrels per day
Their biggest refinery is offline
And
Hormuz mined and paralyzed ❌
Oman bypass hubs struck ❌
Bab al-Mandab Houthis circling ❌
Look at who's not getting their oil today:
🇨🇳 China: 1.75mb/day from Aramco blocked
🇯🇵 Japan: 960k bpd blocked
🇰🇷 S Korea: 950k bpd blocked
🇮🇳 India: 850k bpd blocked
The East-West pipeline is running hard but it's not enough.
Storage is filling.
Fields are shutting in.
Now the refinery is burning.
Aramco called this "catastrophic"
They weren't exaggerating.🛢️🔥
📩 Subscribe to the newsletter link in my bio
#OOTT
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Their biggest refinery is offline
And
Hormuz mined and paralyzed ❌
Oman bypass hubs struck ❌
Bab al-Mandab Houthis circling ❌
Look at who's not getting their oil today:
🇨🇳 China: 1.75mb/day from Aramco blocked
🇯🇵 Japan: 960k bpd blocked
🇰🇷 S Korea: 950k bpd blocked
🇮🇳 India: 850k bpd blocked
The East-West pipeline is running hard but it's not enough.
Storage is filling.
Fields are shutting in.
Now the refinery is burning.
Aramco called this "catastrophic"
They weren't exaggerating.🛢️🔥
📩 Subscribe to the newsletter link in my bio
#OOTT
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People think the Hormuz crisis is about oil prices
In reality it's about everything⚠️
Every single item in this image is made from oil.
25 million bpd now offline between Hormuz and potentially Bab al-Mandab.
This hits every factory.
Every hospital.
Every supermarket shelf.
Every product you touch today.
When the oil stops moving, everything stops moving.
We're about to find out just how deep that dependency runs🛢️
📩 Subscribe to the newsletter link in my bio
#OOTT
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In reality it's about everything⚠️
Every single item in this image is made from oil.
25 million bpd now offline between Hormuz and potentially Bab al-Mandab.
This hits every factory.
Every hospital.
Every supermarket shelf.
Every product you touch today.
When the oil stops moving, everything stops moving.
We're about to find out just how deep that dependency runs🛢️
📩 Subscribe to the newsletter link in my bio
#OOTT
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🚨 CANADA IS A RESOURCE SUPERPOWER
AND THE WORLD NEEDS IT 🍁⛏️
• 🛢️ 168bn barrels of oil. Top tier globally
• ☢️ 589k tonnes of uranium. Energy security metal
• 🧂 1.1bn tonnes of potash. Food supply choke point
• 🌲 3.47m km² of forests. Carbon + timber leverage
• 💧 2.9 trillion m³ of freshwater. Strategic scarcity asset
• 🥇 3,200 tonnes of gold. Monetary hedge
This is geopolitical leverage.
In a world short #energy , food, #metals, and water.
#Canada sits on everything that matters.
#oott
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AND THE WORLD NEEDS IT 🍁⛏️
• 🛢️ 168bn barrels of oil. Top tier globally
• ☢️ 589k tonnes of uranium. Energy security metal
• 🧂 1.1bn tonnes of potash. Food supply choke point
• 🌲 3.47m km² of forests. Carbon + timber leverage
• 💧 2.9 trillion m³ of freshwater. Strategic scarcity asset
• 🥇 3,200 tonnes of gold. Monetary hedge
This is geopolitical leverage.
In a world short #energy , food, #metals, and water.
#Canada sits on everything that matters.
#oott
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🚨 Exxon says it can handle Venezuela’s tough crude
According to @Georgina Kronau ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, the company has the technology to produce and process Venezuela’s high-cost heavy crude despite its extra-heavy, sour nature and past challenges.
• Venezuelan reserves (especially the Orinoco Belt) are some of the largest in the world, but the oil is extra-heavy and costly to extract and refine.
• U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are already historically built to handle heavy crude meaning the bottleneck is less about refining than about investment and politics.
Exxon’s statement underscores that the real constraints remain policy, legal frameworks, and risk protections before full reentry happens.
This positions Exxon strategically if Venezuelan heavy barrels flow back into US or Atlantic markets.
#oott #Venezuela
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According to @Georgina Kronau ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, the company has the technology to produce and process Venezuela’s high-cost heavy crude despite its extra-heavy, sour nature and past challenges.
• Venezuelan reserves (especially the Orinoco Belt) are some of the largest in the world, but the oil is extra-heavy and costly to extract and refine.
• U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are already historically built to handle heavy crude meaning the bottleneck is less about refining than about investment and politics.
Exxon’s statement underscores that the real constraints remain policy, legal frameworks, and risk protections before full reentry happens.
This positions Exxon strategically if Venezuelan heavy barrels flow back into US or Atlantic markets.
#oott #Venezuela
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US shale just hit maintenance mode
• Lower 48 flattens in 2026
• #Permian holds near 6.8 mb/d, not growing
• Growth years are over
What’s happening:
• Tier-1 acreage is largely drilled
• Capital discipline > volume growth
• More wells just to stand still
When the world expects US shale to bail out every supply shock,
but production can only hold flat, the buffer disappears.
Flat shale + geopolitical risk =
higher volatility, higher risk premium, tighter balances.
The shale miracle isn’t dead.
But it’s no longer the swing producer it used to be.
#oott
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• Lower 48 flattens in 2026
• #Permian holds near 6.8 mb/d, not growing
• Growth years are over
What’s happening:
• Tier-1 acreage is largely drilled
• Capital discipline > volume growth
• More wells just to stand still
When the world expects US shale to bail out every supply shock,
but production can only hold flat, the buffer disappears.
Flat shale + geopolitical risk =
higher volatility, higher risk premium, tighter balances.
The shale miracle isn’t dead.
But it’s no longer the swing producer it used to be.
#oott
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🚨 Exxon 2025 Earnings
💰How they made money?
🇺🇸Total earnings excluding financing costs $28B.
Segment contribution:
• Upstream $21B (-16% YoY)
• Energy Products $7B (+84% YoY)
• Specialty Products $3B (-6% YoY)
• Chemical Products $1B (-69% YoY)
Upstream still dominant
But downstream is carrying more weight
#OOTT
💰How they made money?
🇺🇸Total earnings excluding financing costs $28B.
Segment contribution:
• Upstream $21B (-16% YoY)
• Energy Products $7B (+84% YoY)
• Specialty Products $3B (-6% YoY)
• Chemical Products $1B (-69% YoY)
Upstream still dominant
But downstream is carrying more weight
#OOTT
📊 Commodities Are Tiny
That’s The Opportunity
Look at the scale:
• US Equities: $72T
• US Treasuries: $25T
Now compare:
• Oil open interest: $549B
• #Gold: $199B
• #Copper: $190B
• #Silver: $51B
Most commodity markets are sub-$500B.
That means something important.
It doesn’t take massive capital flows to move prices.
A small reallocation from bonds or equities into #commodities can create outsized price impact.
In a world of:
• #Energy. transition
• Re-industrialization
• Geopolitical fragmentation
• Supply constraints
The asset class is structurally small relative to financial markets.
#OOTT
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That’s The Opportunity
Look at the scale:
• US Equities: $72T
• US Treasuries: $25T
Now compare:
• Oil open interest: $549B
• #Gold: $199B
• #Copper: $190B
• #Silver: $51B
Most commodity markets are sub-$500B.
That means something important.
It doesn’t take massive capital flows to move prices.
A small reallocation from bonds or equities into #commodities can create outsized price impact.
In a world of:
• #Energy. transition
• Re-industrialization
• Geopolitical fragmentation
• Supply constraints
The asset class is structurally small relative to financial markets.
#OOTT
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🛢 How Crude Oil Becomes Everything
Fractional distillation separates crude by boiling point.
Lighter molecules rise.
Heavier ones stay low.
From top to bottom:
• <25°C Petroleum gas
• 25–60°C Gasoline
• 60–180°C Naphtha
• 180–220°C Kerosene / jet fuel
• 220–250°C Diesel
• 250–300°C Fuel oil
• 300–350°C Lubricants
• >350°C Bitumen
One barrel...Multiple products.
Refining is value creation through molecular engineering.
#OOTT
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Fractional distillation separates crude by boiling point.
Lighter molecules rise.
Heavier ones stay low.
From top to bottom:
• <25°C Petroleum gas
• 25–60°C Gasoline
• 60–180°C Naphtha
• 180–220°C Kerosene / jet fuel
• 220–250°C Diesel
• 250–300°C Fuel oil
• 300–350°C Lubricants
• >350°C Bitumen
One barrel...Multiple products.
Refining is value creation through molecular engineering.
#OOTT
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📈 Global Fossil Fuel Prices (1990–2026)
According to the World Bank and IMF energy price indices, global fossil fuel prices remain below the 2007–2014 average but above the 2015–2020 average, reflecting a moderation from pre-2015 highs while staying elevated relative to the mid-2010s period.
#energy #fuels #oil #crude #OOTT #NatGas #coal
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According to the World Bank and IMF energy price indices, global fossil fuel prices remain below the 2007–2014 average but above the 2015–2020 average, reflecting a moderation from pre-2015 highs while staying elevated relative to the mid-2010s period.
#energy #fuels #oil #crude #OOTT #NatGas #coal
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🚨 EUROPE’S GAS SHOCK ISN’T OVER
Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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🇻🇪Venezuela went from US sanctions to US strategic asset
🚨It took 6 weeks and Here's what changed
On March 4th, US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum was in Caracas.
To talk about mining deals.
He told Venezuelan officials and US mining executives that American companies are "lining up to invest" in #Venezuela 's critical minerals gold, diamonds, bauxite, and especially coltan.
The same country that was under crippling sanctions 60 days ago is now being courted for its resources.
💡Here's what's really happening:
Venezuela has 303.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world.
But the US isn't just pivoting to Venezuelan oil It's also locking the access to critical minerals.
→ Over 7,000 tons of potential #GOLD reserves
→ Coltan deposits (used in electronics and #Defense supply chains)
→ Bauxite, nickel, iron, #copper scattered across the Orinoco #mining arc
US sees Venezuela as a dual resource play:
1) Oil to hedge Middle East risk (especially post-Hormuz disruption)
2) Critical minerals to reduce dependence on #China and #Africa
Venezuela's interim government is already rewriting its mining code to allow large foreign companies to develop these deposits.
Post-Maduro Venezuela is becoming a strategic node for both energy and critical minerals 2 of the most contested resources in global competition with China.
The lesson?
When a country holds both the world's largest oil reserves AND critical minerals needed for electronics and defense, geopolitical alignment happens fast.
#OOTT #MINERALS
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🚨It took 6 weeks and Here's what changed
On March 4th, US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum was in Caracas.
To talk about mining deals.
He told Venezuelan officials and US mining executives that American companies are "lining up to invest" in #Venezuela 's critical minerals gold, diamonds, bauxite, and especially coltan.
The same country that was under crippling sanctions 60 days ago is now being courted for its resources.
💡Here's what's really happening:
Venezuela has 303.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world.
But the US isn't just pivoting to Venezuelan oil It's also locking the access to critical minerals.
→ Over 7,000 tons of potential #GOLD reserves
→ Coltan deposits (used in electronics and #Defense supply chains)
→ Bauxite, nickel, iron, #copper scattered across the Orinoco #mining arc
US sees Venezuela as a dual resource play:
1) Oil to hedge Middle East risk (especially post-Hormuz disruption)
2) Critical minerals to reduce dependence on #China and #Africa
Venezuela's interim government is already rewriting its mining code to allow large foreign companies to develop these deposits.
Post-Maduro Venezuela is becoming a strategic node for both energy and critical minerals 2 of the most contested resources in global competition with China.
The lesson?
When a country holds both the world's largest oil reserves AND critical minerals needed for electronics and defense, geopolitical alignment happens fast.
#OOTT #MINERALS
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Asia's refineries are built for Gulf crude
That's exactly what's disappearing from Hormuz right now
You can't just swap in US Light Sweet.
It doesn't run the same way.
Why there's no easy substitute:
→ #Russia : Already maxed out, can't scale further
→ US Light Sweet: Wrong grade for Asian refineries
→ #Venezuela Heavy: Extra-heavy, rarely goes to Asia
→ #Canada Heavy: 96% to US, not exported to Asia
The reality is that Asia doesn't just need oil.
Asia needs Medium and Heavy Sour crude from the Gulf.
And right now:
→ The Strait is 80% closed
→ Refineries are burning
→ Producers are declaring force majeure
→ Tankers won't enter the Gulf
You can't replace it barrel for barrel because refineries are built for specific grades.
When those grades disappear, the system breaks.
#oott
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That's exactly what's disappearing from Hormuz right now
You can't just swap in US Light Sweet.
It doesn't run the same way.
Why there's no easy substitute:
→ #Russia : Already maxed out, can't scale further
→ US Light Sweet: Wrong grade for Asian refineries
→ #Venezuela Heavy: Extra-heavy, rarely goes to Asia
→ #Canada Heavy: 96% to US, not exported to Asia
The reality is that Asia doesn't just need oil.
Asia needs Medium and Heavy Sour crude from the Gulf.
And right now:
→ The Strait is 80% closed
→ Refineries are burning
→ Producers are declaring force majeure
→ Tankers won't enter the Gulf
You can't replace it barrel for barrel because refineries are built for specific grades.
When those grades disappear, the system breaks.
#oott
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🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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