oott

#RiskAssetsMarketShock
🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.

This is how crude really moves ⬇️

• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.

• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.

• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.

• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.

Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.

When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.

Whoever controls ships controls flows.

#oott

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⚡️ Energy Power Is Concentrated in Just 2 Countries

That's the real secret to rule the 🌎

🇨🇳China and 🇺🇸the United States dominate almost everything that matters

🪨 Coal: China = 52% of global production

🛢️ Crude oil: US = 21%, Saudi Arabia = 11%, Russia = 11%

🔥 Natural gas: US = 25% of global output

☢️ Nuclear: US = 30%, China catching fast at 16%

🌊 Hydro: China = 30%

☀️ Solar: China = 39%

🌬️ Wind: China = 40%

🌽 Biofuels: US = 37%, Brazil = 22%

#energy #oott #natgas #coal #China

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📈 Gold–Oil Price Ratio Reaches Record High in 2025

The gold–oil price ratio—a measure of gold’s value relative to oil—hit an all-time high annual average of 51 barrels per ounce in 2025, roughly double its level in the 1960s.

#energy #fuels #petroleum #shale #oil #crude #OilPrice #OOTT #OPEC #WTI #gold #GoldPrice

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⚠️ The Valuation Gap Is Getting Hard to Ignore

Europe vs the US supermajors

The numbers:
• Shell $224B
• #TotalEnergies $165B
• bp $103B
→ $492B combined

Now compare:
• #ExxonMobil $617B
• #Chevron $360B

This is strategy and perception.

• US majors priced for cash flow and discipline
• European majors discounted for complexity and mixed signals

💰Capital rewards clarity, not narrative

#OOTT
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#USIranStandoff
‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has seized 2 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and detained roughly 15 foreign crew members.

The seizures took place amid heightened tension after Washington dispatched a naval group to the region after Tehran’s deadly response to anti-government protests.

#oott #Iran

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🛢️Oil & Gas Still Anchor the World’s Biggest Economies

• Saudi Aramco 🇸🇦 → $1.6T market cap

• Gazprom 🇷🇺 → $70B, despite sanctions and rerouted flows

• Petrobras 🇧🇷 → $112B, leverage to offshore + dividends

• Reliance Industries 🇮🇳 → $231B, oil-to-chemicals + refining scale

Energy companies still dominate national balance sheets and the State-linked producers matter more than pure majors in GDP terms

AI moves markets.
Oil and gas still move countries.

#oott #energy #India #Russia #Brazil

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💰 How Chevron REALLY made money in 2025

Not price
Execution

The stats:

• $189B revenue -7% YoY
• $12B net income -30% YoY
• $13B upstream profit did the heavy lifting
• $108B spent on crude
• $33B operating costs

What mattered?

• US + International upstream paid the bills
• Downstream added just $3B
• Everything else lost money

Big Oil isn’t a price trade anymore.
It’s a discipline trade.

#oott #chevron

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🛢️ Offshore Oil Isn’t 1 Thing It’s 6...

The deeper the water, the higher the cost.

And the higher the geopolitical value.

How offshore really works?

Fixed platforms → shallow water, lowest cost

Compliant towers → deeper, more flexible

Tension-leg platforms → >300m, capital heavy, stable

Spar platforms → ultra-deep, long-life assets

Semi-submersibles → mobility + harsh environments

FPSOs → floating production, storage, export hubs

• Shallow = fast payback
• Deepwater = long cycle, fewer players
• FPSOs = energy + logistics + geopolitics in one hull

Offshore oil didn’t disappear.
It just went deeper.

#oott
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#USIranStandoff
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil Prices can skyrocket 🚀

Iran reportedly sent another drone to monitor the USS Abraham Lincoln.
After the first one was shot down.

Same area,Near the Strait of Hormuz.

• Test the perimeter
• Force a response
• Signal resolve without escalation

They know the rules.
They keep pushing anyway.

No damage needed.
Proximity is the message.

Markets don’t wait for strikes.
They price intent.

So the question.

How many warnings before risk finally reprices?

#oott #Iran #Drone

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50% of global CO₂ comes from just 36 companies💨

#oott #energy

Devon, Coterra will merge to create $58 billion US shale giant

#oott
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#MarketCorrection
Global goods trade is up +6% in H1 2025 YoY🚀
After +2% in 2024

Acceleration is real

Look at what’s pulling📈

• Equipment and chemicals lead
• Investment and tech drive volumes
• Industrial demand is back

Now the drag📉

• #Energy , #fuels #mining under pressure
• Lower prices mute value growth
• #Iron #steel autos still struggling

Trade grows where capital spends.
Not where prices deflate.

Volume is not value.
And composition matters more than speed.

So is global trade being rebuilt around investment chains.

While commodity cycles stay capped?

#oott
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🚨🛢️Devon + Coterra create the largest horizontal-operated portfolio in the US 🇺🇸

This is the structure.

• All-stock merger
• Devon holders 54%
• Coterra holders 46%
• No balance sheet stress

This is the mechanism.

• Delaware scale unlocks drilling efficiency
• Inventory depth extends runway
• Capital allocation tightens
• Marginal barrels get cheaper

This is the biggest US shale deal since Exxon–Pioneer 2023.
Rumored for years.
Operational logic finally clears.

Volumes matter.

On 2025 pro-forma output.
This combination tops US operators.

Exxon may challenge in 2026.
But today the scale is undeniable.

Does shale now reward size and inventory or is this the last cycle where scale still pays?

#oott
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#USIranStandoff
🚨 JUST IN 🇺🇸🇸🇦

According to Fox News, Saudi Arabia has informed Washington that it will not allow the U.S. to use its airspace or military bases for an attack on Iran, complicating U.S. military planning in the region.

Watch out for 🛢️prices…

#oott #Trump #SaudiArabia #Iran
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#USIranStandoff
🚨 IRAN RISK IS NOT A 3% OIL STORY

🛢️ IT’S A 20% CHOKEPOINT STORY

Look at the map

This is the real oil market.

More than 20 million barrels per day flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

That’s 20% of global oil supply moving through one narrow corridor.

This is why the market is nervous.

💥 I just published a deep dive covering:

✅ Why #Iran ≠ #Venezuela (and why that changes everything)

✅ 5 scenarios from threat premium to full closure, with price targets

✅ What 1973, 1979, 1990, and 2011 teach us today

✅ The signals to watch in the next weeks

✅ Why fundamentals stop mattering when chokepoints dominate

Markets are repricing optionality, not reality.

Yet.

One miscalculation.

And $120 oil can arrive in 48 hours.

🔗 👇

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#oott #Brent #China #Trump

Oil doesn’t move freely. It funnels.

Just a handful of chokepoints carry most of the world’s oil.

• #HormuzStrait : ~21 mb/d
• Strait of Malacca: ~24 mb/d
• Suez + Bab el-Mandeb: ~17 mb/d combined

That’s not diversification.
That’s concentration risk.

This is why markets stay calm… until they don’t.
When geography, not fundamentals, is stressed, prices gap before supply even breaks.

This is exactly what my latest deep dive explains:

• Why #Iran ≠ #Venezuela
• How chokepoints reprice oil faster than inventories
• What history says when transit routes are threatened

Markets are pricing optionality, not barrels.

One miscalculation, and the map above turns into a price shock.

👇
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#oott #Trump

Reserve replacement is the real scorecard.

Above 100% means a company is growing its future.
Below 100% means it is harvesting decline.

• ExxonMobil is in a league of its own. ~290% RRR. Guyana, Permian, LNG optionality
• TotalEnergies and Petrobras are consistently replacing and expanding reserves
• Equinor and Eni sit in the healthy middle
• Shell is borderline
• BP is the outlier. Sub-50% replacement. Structural shrinkage

Capital discipline matters.
But you cannot buy back what you don’t replace.

Over time, reserve math beats narrative.

#oott
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US shale just hit maintenance mode

• Lower 48 flattens in 2026
• #Permian holds near 6.8 mb/d, not growing
• Growth years are over

What’s happening:

• Tier-1 acreage is largely drilled
• Capital discipline > volume growth
• More wells just to stand still

When the world expects US shale to bail out every supply shock,
but production can only hold flat, the buffer disappears.

Flat shale + geopolitical risk =
higher volatility, higher risk premium, tighter balances.

The shale miracle isn’t dead.
But it’s no longer the swing producer it used to be.

#oott
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🇪🇺🇺🇸 Europe is now running on US LNG

In January, 60% of Europe’s #LNG imports came from the United States.

That’s not a marginal shift.
It’s a structural one.

A few years ago, Europe depended on Russian pipelines.
Today, it depends on US LNG cargoes crossing the Atlantic.

This changes everything:
• pricing power
• winter risk
• geopolitics
• and how Europe thinks about energy security

The question isn’t if this dependence matters.
It’s when markets start pricing it properly.

What happens the next time the US has a cold winter? ❄️🚢

#oott #NatGas #Russia
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🚨 CANADA IS A RESOURCE SUPERPOWER

AND THE WORLD NEEDS IT 🍁⛏️

• 🛢️ 168bn barrels of oil. Top tier globally

• ☢️ 589k tonnes of uranium. Energy security metal

• 🧂 1.1bn tonnes of potash. Food supply choke point

• 🌲 3.47m km² of forests. Carbon + timber leverage

• 💧 2.9 trillion m³ of freshwater. Strategic scarcity asset

• 🥇 3,200 tonnes of gold. Monetary hedge

This is geopolitical leverage.

In a world short #energy , food, #metals, and water.
#Canada sits on everything that matters.

#oott
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