#TrumpTariffs 1. Tariffs Snap Back (Unless Extended) ⏳

China-specific tariffs at ~30% could revert to the full ~145% level on August 14—with the broader reciprocal pause expiring July 9—unless extensions are agreed upon .

Treasury Sec. Bessent signaled extensions are possible for select trade partners, unlike automatic reinstatement .

2. Business Pressure & Supply Chain Disruption

Importers are racing to front-load shipments, causing port jams and freight-cost spikes .

SMEs already feel stretched—80% report high tariff stress, many stockpiling goods or considering reshoring, though only ~7% have followed through .

3. Economic & Market Impact

Consumer prices may rise further as sticky tariffs add pressure—JP Morgan estimates ~$1,200 extra annual tax per household .

Midsize firms are already tightening budgets; continued tariffs risk damping U.S. growth this summer .

Equity markets have shown volatility—Dow drops of ~230–700 pts and a weaker dollar often follow tariff threats .

4. Negotiation Leverage

The pause acts as a negotiation tool, with reinstatement looming to pressure trading partners for deals .

Though Trump suggested a deal with 15+ countries—including China, EU, Korea, Japan—the deadline could be extended if talks progress .

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🔎 What’s Next?

Event Date Implications

Reciprocal tariffs expire July 9 Broad U.S. tariffs return unless extended

China-tariff pause ends Aug 14 China tariffs could jump to 145%

Progress on deals Ongoing Extension likely tied to trade wins