Here are the details again (2/3)

$BTC -$54K Mispricing | 1-Year Model Path: ~$161K (+133%)

Spot: ~$69K

Power-law fair value: ~$123K

Gap: -$54K (-44%, Z = -0.82, statistically very attractive)

Math:

At an 18-month horizon, this Z-score explains about 55–62% of the variation in future returns (R²=0.555 with overlapping windows; R²=0.617 with non-overlapping windows; n=9 independent periods).

Means: Historically, more than half of the difference in 18-month outcomes lines up with how far Bitcoin started above or below its long-term trend.

If mean reversion follows the historical half-life (~133 days), most of the gap closes over the next year, with a modeled path near ~$161K by 12 months.

Short-term flows can stay noisy.

Long-term reversion math remains bullish.