Buying every dip in a late-cycle chop is how portfolios die by a thousand cuts. You do not lose because Bitcoin is “volatile”, you lose because time gets mispriced and you keep paying the liquidity tax in the wrong phase.

Most debate is still about targets. The more useful question is whether this tape is distribution or re-accumulation. My view is simple: until price proves it can reclaim supply, the base case is a corrective structure, not a clean trend continuation.

What I can point to on the chart is clear. The cycle high sits near 126k, and the rejection has already produced a deep leg down into the 59k area. BTC is currently around 66.9k, which is consistent with consolidation after an initial impulse lower.

Everything after that is inference, not fact. If the move is an extended ABC, the next recovery would most likely be a reflex rally back into the 84.8k to 90k supply band, where sellers historically show up. Failure to hold above that zone would keep the path open for a final capitulation leg toward 34k to 30k, which also overlaps prior demand and long-term value interest.

The tradeoff is timing risk. Wave maps can invalidate fast, and a strong reclaim of supply can force you to chase higher.

What would change my mind: weekly closes back above 90k, the 200-week trend turning up with price holding it, spot volume leading on green weeks, funding and open interest rebuilding without liquidations, and exchange balances not rising during rallies.