The Macro Outlook & Tonight's Big Event
The global crypto market is at a fever pitch tonight, February 18, 2026. With the Fear and Greed Index crashing to 12-13 (Extreme Fear), investors are on high alert. Bitcoin is currently fighting to hold the $67,000–$68,200 range, but technical indicators are flashing warnings.
The Big "Binary" Event:
All eyes are on 7:00 PM EST tonight for the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This report will likely define the market's direction for the rest of February. A "hawkish" tone could push BTC toward structural support at $62,000, while any hint of rate cuts could spark a rally back to $72,000.
Key Levels to Watch Tonight:
BTC Support: $67,000 (Psychological) and $62,000 (Local Floor).
BTC Resistance: $75,000 (Weekly Pivot).
Institutional War: While Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy continues to buy the dip, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund has reportedly exited Ethereum-linked positions.
Trade Strategy: Stay neutral until 7 PM. The "Warsh Effect" (the potential for a more aggressive Fed) is keeping the US Dollar strong, putting heavy pressure on "Digital Gold".