War headlines don’t automatically mean upside for $BTC . Bitcoin still behaves primarily as a risk asset, not digital gold during initial shock phases.
The usual sequence looks like this:
Conflict → Oil spikes → Institutions go risk-off → Equities & crypto sell off → Capital rotates into oil, gold, and cash.
We’ve seen this pattern before. Oil tends to move first — $BTC reacts afterward.
If crude starts accelerating on geopolitical escalation, don’t expect Bitcoin to immediately behave like a safe haven. In most cases, it trades alongside the broader risk bucket.
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