That 1.4% US GDP print isn’t just a “cooling” headline — it’s what happens when the economy is still moving, but someone hits the brakes mid-highway.

This was Q4 2025 (annualized), and it came in way below the prior quarter’s 4.4% pace. The big drag wasn’t some mysterious consumer collapse — it was policy friction: a 43-day federal shutdown that analysts say shaved roughly ~1 percentage point off growth. On top of that, government spending dropped and exports weakened, both pulling the number down.

The interesting part is what didn’t break. Households still spent — consumer spending rose about 2.4% — so the engine is running, just with extra weight strapped to it. And that’s where the tension sits: growth slowed sharply, but inflation didn’t give a clean “all clear,” which keeps the rate-cut story messy instead of simple.

A 1.4% quarter isn’t a crash. It’s a reminder that the next big swing in the data might come less from shoppers… and more from Washington.