📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FGI SENTIMENT REPORT – UPDATE 02/28/2026
Statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between the FGI index and Winrate remains low (r ~ -0.23). This result continues to indicate that FGI does not serve as a predictive tool for price direction or entry timing, but plays a critical role in quantifying position risk. Notably, trading performance tends to deteriorate significantly when market sentiment reaches extreme greed levels, making it an early risk-warning signal rather than an opportunity to expand profits.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.8% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=175
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 49.6% • R:R=1:1.01 • n=53
Percentage of days with performance above the overall average (45.89%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 12.0%
🤤 Greed: 39.5%
😐 Neutral: 44.2%
😨 Fear: 56.0%
😱 Extreme Fear: 66.0%
➤ Short-term traders can use FGI as a guideline to adjust profit expectations when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit targets should be increased to maintain a sufficiently large R:R, compensating for the declining winrate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit targets may be reduced to accelerate capital turnover and lock in gains more efficiently.