#jobsdatashock U.S. Jobs Miss Sparks June Fed Rate Cut Bets
The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% — well below expectations of a 50,000 gain — fueling market bets that the Federal Reserve [finance:Federal Reserve] will cut rates as early as June. While wage growth edged slightly above forecasts at +0.3% month-on-month and +3.8% year-on-year, the headline miss was enough to push the dollar lower and Treasury yields down sharply.cnbc+2
Currency Market Moves
The dollar index fell 0.2%, closing at 98.85, though it still posted a weekly gain of over 1%. Key currency moves on the day:[news.futunn]
Euro rose ~0.1% against the dollar
British pound gained 0.4%
Japanese yen weakened slightly, with the dollar up 0.1%
Treasury Yield Reaction
Bond markets priced in a more dovish Fed outlook:ycharts+1
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly dropped over 4 basis points to 4.105%, before settling around 4.13%
The more rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 3.519%, stabilizing near 3.55%
The sharp drop in the 2-year yield signals that traders are increasingly pricing in near-term rate cuts. However, Fed officials have maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for sustained evidence of cooling inflation before easing policy.intellectia+2
