Geopolitical chaos and more clarity for the crypto market

The geopolitical situation continues to rattle nerves: every day brings a flood of statements, often contradicting each other. We’re essentially living in massive information noise, where everything changes by the minute and forecasting becomes extremely difficult.

As for crypto and BTC, we’re holding up relatively well. However, every time price moves above the $71K area, it runs into selling pressure and pulls back. On the positive side, ETF inflows have resumed.

Meanwhile, the two key crypto regulators — the SEC and the CFTC — have finally signed a memorandum of coordination. This should bring more regulatory clarity to the crypto market in terms of who regulates what and who is responsible for which areas.

Talk of tariffs is also back. The U.S. administration is laying the groundwork for a new trade war by launching investigations into 16 of America’s largest trading partners under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

In essence, this mechanism allows the U.S. to impose tariffs and other retaliatory measures — effectively a workaround to restore the tariffs previously struck down by the Supreme Court. How this will play out, or whether it will be implemented at all, remains to be seen. But by now, everyone knows how tariffs tend to affect crypto.

Another important factor is Trump’s visit to China on March 30, which could provide a short-term positive catalyst for the market. So it’s possible we remain in a local uptrend through the end of the month. But again, everything can flip 180 degrees at any moment.