I just checked my $NIGHT position again. Down massively from where I entered post-launch. And honestly, I'm not panicking, I'm thinking.
$NIGHT hit $1.81 on Dec 9, 2025, the day it listed. Market was in full hype mode, Glacier Drop participants were selling, and the token dumped 66% in the same 24 hours. That's not a collapse, that's a new token doing what new tokens do.
What's kept me watching is what didn't change during that dump: the roadmap kept moving. Mainnet is confirmed for the final week of March 2026. Google Cloud just signed on as the first federated node operator. LayerZero integration announced at Consensus Hong Kong. That's not the behavior of a project that peaked on day one.
Current market cap sits around $840M. FDV is $1.22B. Circulating supply is 17B of a 24B max. The supply overhang from the Glacier Drop thaw is real, I won't pretend it isn't. 4.55B tokens unlock quarterly over 360 days, that's mechanical sell pressure every 90 days through late 2026.
But here's my actual question: when mainnet goes live and the first privacy-preserving dApps deploy on a live network backed by Google and Telegram, does the FDV of $1.22B still make sense as a ceiling? I genuinely don't know. Neither does anyone else. That's the bet.