📊 / On-Chain & Futures Analysis

— Weekly Market Brief

On-chain data shows a borderline setup as $BTC trades at $68,297. The average cost basis for short-term holders remains significantly higher at ~$111,400, keeping recent buyers in a state of unrealized loss.

Exchange $BTC reserves showed a slight uptick for the first time in weeks. Coinbase $BTC balances rose +4.48% (~36k BTC inflow), a signal that often precedes localized selling pressure or a stop-hunt to the downside.

On the futures side:

• Critical support cluster at $64,800–$65,200

• Funding rates neutral at 0.012%, indicating no excessive leverage

• Open Interest remains at record highs, creating a coiled spring effect

📌 Bottom Line

While last week was defined by bullish divergence, this week is a cooling phase. The market is digesting the Fed's hawkish stance and the recent surge in exchange inflows.

The primary risk is a fake-out toward $65k to flush out late longs before the anticipated short squeeze toward $78k–$82k can materialize.