Headline: The “time pain” trap — why bitcoin may need more months of boring before a true bottom Bitcoin’s bear market isn’t just about how low prices can fall — it’s also about how long the slog lasts. Traders often talk about “price pain” (sharp drawdowns and volatility that force exits). But a quieter, slower form of suffering — “time pain” — can be just as important: prolonged, range‑bound trading that grinds down both bulls and bears through lack of direction. Where things stand - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $66,800 and has slipped below $66,000 intraday, down more than 3% in the past 24 hours. The coin sits about 45% below its October all‑time high, marking nearly six months of bearish conditions. - That stretch of sideways action is exactly the kind of environment that creates “time pain.” What the on‑chain data says Glassnode’s Realized Cap HODL Waves — which groups bitcoin supply by the last time coins moved and weights those bands by realized price (the average price at which coins last transacted on‑chain) — points to a familiar pattern seen at prior bottoms. Historically, market lows have coincided with long‑term holders (coins held six months or longer) controlling at least 85% of circulating supply. The sequence typically plays out with price lows coming first, and only several months later does long‑term holder supply creep up to those high levels, reflecting accumulation and steadfast holding through the downturn. Right now, long‑term holders control roughly 80% of supply. That’s close to the historical threshold, but not quite there yet. If the trend continues, it suggests the market could be approaching a bottoming phase — but it would likely take several more months of consolidation before that floor is confirmed. What to watch - Long‑term holder share rising toward or above the 85% mark. - Continued range‑bound trading and declining volatility as “time pain” plays out. - Any catalysts that break the range decisively to the upside or accelerate flows out of long positions. In short: the path to a durable bottom may be less about one more flash crash and more about enduring a few more months of boring consolidation as long‑term holders absorb supply. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news