BlockBeats News, April 6th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, the market's expectation of a US-Iran ceasefire has been steadily increasing since yesterday. The probability of a ceasefire by the end of this month has risen from 18% to 28%, by the end of May from 34% to 42%, and a ceasefire by the end of June has become a high-probability event, with a 53% chance.The rising ceasefire expectation is mainly driven by Trump's deadline for Iran to come to the negotiating table. Currently, the deadline set by Trump for negotiations is "Tuesday night Eastern Time" (Wednesday morning Beijing Time). In addition, several related news have bolstered the ceasefire expectation. Sources revealed that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which could ultimately lead to a permanent end to the conflict. Furthermore, Iran held talks with Oman on Saturday to discuss various proposals to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
