UNCTAD says shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 95% since the conflict began on February 28, disrupting roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade. Egypt granular urea prices have risen to about $700 per metric ton from a pre-war range of $400–$490. FAO projects global fertilizer prices will average 15%–20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the disruption persists, and UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said a 48% year-over-year rise in fertilizer prices could push global food prices up 12%.