#LYN
This is an interesting setup because you’re essentially fading strength and that always comes down to timing and confirmation.
The 0.05112–0.05174 zone is clearly acting as a reclaim area, but not a fully confirmed breakout. If price struggles to hold above this range, your short thesis makes sense as a rejection from a weak reclaim. The 4H structure leaning bearish within a range-bound daily context supports the idea of a move back toward the lower range.
The 15m RSI at 67 is key here—it shows momentum is elevated, which often leads to either continuation or a rollover. Since you’re short-biased, you’re betting on that exhaustion kicking in. Volume being slightly above baseline (1.08x) adds some credibility, but it’s not strong enough to confirm a decisive move yet.
Key level to watch:
👉 0.052 breakout and hold
If price pushes above that and holds with increasing volume, the setup weakens quickly and could turn into a continuation squeeze. On the flip side, if you see rejection wicks and failure to hold above 0.0515, that strengthens your case for a move toward TP1 and lower.
Your targets are realistic for a range play, especially around 0.049–0.048 where liquidity likely sits.
Overall, this is a fade-the-reclaim setup—valid, but sensitive. If the zone holds, you win clean. If it flips to support, the move can go against you fast.