📊 $BTC Analysis (April 6)

1/ Perp Data

- Whale CVD: Buying and selling activity began increasing from the weekend (Apr 5). Whale CVD recorded $522M buying pressure around the 68K level.

2/ Spot Data

- Whale CVD: Mostly maintained slight selling pressure with no significant buying activity.

- Bubble Chart: Whale Activity increased sharply on Sunday while price was sideways above Whale VWAP → an indicator signaling early warning of a potential upcoming trend.

🤔 Insight

Currently, BTC price has been sideways above Whale VWAP for a relatively extended period, with both positive signals and risks as follows:

🟢 Bullish Factors:

- Price has been accepted above the Whale VWAP level → In a healthy liquidity environment, BTC typically fluctuates within a ±5% range around Whale VWAP, and currently price can be expected to move toward the upper band (~71K).

- Whale CVD (Perp Market) ~ $522M → Meets the necessary condition to expect further recovery.

- Whale Activity increased significantly while price was consolidating around Whale VWAP.

🔴 Risks:

- Spot CVD shows no notable activity.

🚨 Conclusion

Reiterating the conditions for a bullish reversal:

1/ Whale Activity increases sharply after a short bullback following a strong dump trend.

2/ Minimum CVD increase required for BTC/ETH (measured from CVD bottom):

Perp: +$500M

Spot: +$200M

3/ Price touches the lower band (±5% of Whale VWAP) or the Whale VWAP level.

At present, BTC satisfies all three conditions:

(1) Whale Activity surged while price was sideways around Whale VWAP and then moved up;

(2) Whale CVD Perp ~$522M > $500M;

(3) Price is trading above Whale VWAP (support level).

🟢 Current expectation: BTC may have a short-term recovery toward Whale VWAP ~71K.

🔴 Alternative scenario: If price reverses and no longer satisfies the CVD condition, BTC may correct deeper toward the lower bands (~64.5K).

The short put positioning in Options helped avoid a loss by pushing the downside timing to after April 10.

Whale Activity remains a highly reliable indicator for anticipating market moves ahead of time.

For now, we continue to monitor price action throughout this week. The current plan still expects downside after April 10 — any changes will be updated accordingly.

Join our trading group for FREE signals, education, 1-1 support from our experienced traders: https://t.me/ +HWa2akmNUJo5OWQ1 (remove space), or follow us on X: TKR_Trading.