#HODL & #SOLD
📉 Bitcoin: A Test of Strength for “Young” Money
The Bitcoin market is currently witnessing a classic drama of “weak hands”. According to CryptoQuant, short-term holders (STH) are in a pretty deep “red” zone.
📊 The numbers speak for themselves:
• Average purchase price (Cost Basis): ~$85,400.
• Current $BTC price: ~$69,000.
• Average unrealized loss: -19.3%.
🔍 What does this mean for the market?
Historically, when STH losses exceed 25%, the market enters the “bottom” phase. We are already close to this psychological mark.
1. The “cleaning” process: Some newcomers are already capitulating, selling at a loss. This creates volatility, but at the same time redistributing coins to stronger players.
2. Transition to HODL: Over 300,000 $BTC have recently transitioned to “long-term ownership” status. This indicates that a significant portion of investors are willing to wait out the storm, despite the drawdown.
⚠️ Historical context
The chart clearly shows: deep blue zones (large STH losses) have often preceded large-scale trend reversals. However, this path is never linear - a shakeout can be painful and accompanied by sharp manipulations.
🛡 Your strategy?
The situation is twofold:
• 🔴 Prepare for shakeout: Take a risk and try to buy back lower if the panic intensifies to the -25% loss mark.
• 💎 HODL: Ignore the noise, understanding that fundamentally Bitcoin is simply accumulating strength before the next cycle.
