Here are the odds:

1. US promises no more attacks.
US will probably agree, but only if Iran won't attack first.

2. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran legally borders half the strait, so "control" in the territorial-waters sense is already reality.

3. Iran can enrich uranium.
US wants LOW enrichment only (like 3-5%, for power plants), not bomb-level.

4. Drop all main sanctions.
Possible in stages, never all at once.

5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions.
These hurt European, Chinese, and Indian firms, which creates diplomatic pressure for US to ease them.

6. End UN Security Council resolutions.
US can push for this at the UN, but other countries (UK, France) must agree too.

7. End IAEA (nuclear watchdog) resolutions.
The US actually wants inspectors watching Iran.

8. US pays Iran for war damage.
Trump has long attacked Obama for sending money to Iran, so reparations look far-fetched.

9. US troops leave the Middle East.
US may pull back a little from bases near Iran, but full withdrawal is impossible as allies need them.

10. Stop war on all fronts (including Hezbollah).
US can pause its own actions, but can't control Israel.

2 days to the most consequential handshake of the decade.

#PolymarketMajorUpgrade #MarketRebound #TrumpDeadlineOnIran