Thailand's central bank has reported a notable slowdown in the country's GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026, citing external factors, particularly the ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, as key drivers of the economic deceleration.

In its latest update, the bank highlighted that the conflict has had ripple effects on global trade and supply chains, which, in turn, have weighed on Thailand's export-dependent economy. This external pressure is compounded by uncertainties surrounding global energy prices and financial markets, adding further strain to domestic economic activity.

Revised Growth Forecast for 2026

As a result of these challenges, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) has adjusted its economic outlook for the remainder of the year. The BoT now anticipates the GDP growth rate will experience a further decline in the second quarter, with growth expected to remain subdued.

In a significant move, the central bank has revised its baseline GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%, down from the earlier projection of 1.9% made in December of 2025. This marks a substantial reduction, reflecting the deepening impact of global economic tensions.

Outlook for the Rest of 2026

The BoT’s revised forecast underscores the growing concerns over Thailand's ability to maintain its growth momentum amid continued uncertainty. The bank's decision to lower its forecast reflects both the short-term economic challenges and the potential long-term repercussions if the global geopolitical situation does not stabilize.

The revised growth outlook is also expected to influence monetary policy decisions moving forward, as the central bank weighs its options to support economic activity while managing inflationary

pressures.