Global Energy Market Overview for April 13-18
⚡ This week, the global energy market was driven almost entirely by the US-Iran shock around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment all moved around that single theme.
🛢️ Early in the week, fears of supply disruption pushed crude sharply higher as export flows through Hormuz fell and traders priced in the risk of losing millions of barrels per day. Brent and WTI briefly returned to triple-digit territory, while the premium of physical crude over futures widened fast, showing real stress in prompt supply.
📉 The key turning point came on April 17, when Iran said Hormuz was open again to commercial shipping during the ceasefire window and diplomatic expectations improved. Oil then dropped more than 10% in one session, pulling energy stocks lower while US equities gained on easing inflation fears.
📊 IEA data showed the market remains fragile. Global oil supply in March fell by more than 10 million barrels per day, the largest drop on record, while inventories also tightened. At the same time, the agency cut its 2026 oil demand outlook, suggesting high prices are already hurting consumption in jet fuel, LPG, and naphtha.
🔥 Natural gas reacted less dramatically. Henry Hub stayed near $2.6-2.8/MMBtu because of warm weather, strong output, and ample storage, while TTF and JKM cooled after the ceasefire signal. That suggests this week’s shock was mainly about oil and logistics, not a broad shortage across the whole energy chain.
🌍 Overall, the market moved quickly from supply shock to hopes of normalization, but the risk is not gone. The ceasefire is still temporary, and Iran-related restrictions have not been fully removed, so energy markets may stay volatile in the near term.