Negócio tá bom não #ETH

The ETH/BTC ratio fell to its lowest level in ten months on Tuesday, dropping to 0.02835 — the weakest reading since July 2025 and a decline of more than 35% from its August peak of 0.04324. The move came as Ether dropped more than 2% on the day against Bitcoin's more modest 1% decline, extending a pattern of persistent underperformance that has become one of the clearest signals of where institutional capital is — and isn't — flowing in the current cycle.
What the ETH/BTC ratio measures and why it matters
The ETH/BTC ratio tracks Ether's performance relative to Bitcoin across crypto exchanges and is one of the most widely followed gauges of broader market risk appetite. When the ratio rises, it typically signals that investors are rotating capital out of Bitcoin and into Ether and other higher-risk assets — a sign of strengthening risk sentiment and a broader crypto bull market gaining momentum. When the ratio falls, as it has been doing, it signals the opposite: investors favoring Bitcoin's relative stability and defensive characteristics over the more speculative exposure that Ether represents.
In that sense, Tuesday's ten-month low is not just an Ether story. It is a statement about where the current market cycle stands — and the picture it paints is one of selective, Bitcoin-centric institutional demand rather than the broad-based risk appetite that historically drives altcoin outperformance.
The long-term trend: a multi-year decline
Tuesday's reading fits into a deteriorating longer-term picture for Ether relative to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio peaked above 0.08 in December 2021 — more than double its current level — before entering a prolonged multi-year downtrend. Much of the weakness through 2024 and into 2025 was driven by Bitcoin's outperformance following the January 2024 launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted significant institutional inflows that disproportionately benefited Bitcoin rather than the broader crypto market.
The ratio eventually bottomed at 0.01770 in April 2025 during the market turmoil surrounding President Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcements. It then staged a sharp recovery, gaining roughly 135% through the remainder of 2025 as sentiment improved. But that recovery has since unwound by 35% from its highs, and the ratio is now trading substantially below its 200-week moving average of 0.04828 — a long-term technical benchmark that reinforces the view that Ether remains in a structural bear market relative to Bitcoin, not just a short-term dip.
Why Bitcoin keeps winning the institutional capital battle
The ETF dynamic is central to understanding the divergence. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in billions in institutional inflows since their January 2024 launch, creating a sustained and structurally new source of demand for Bitcoin that has no equivalent on the Ether side — at least not yet at the same scale. When professional capital allocators add crypto exposure through regulated vehicles, they are predominantly adding Bitcoin exposure. Ether ETFs exist but have attracted a fraction of the flows.
The result is a two-speed crypto market. Bitcoin benefits from institutional demand that is increasingly disconnected from retail sentiment cycles. Ether and the broader altcoin market remain more dependent on the kind of speculative retail rotation that tends to emerge later in bull cycles — if and when it emerges at all.
What a recovery would require
For the ETH/BTC ratio to reverse its downtrend meaningfully, one of two things would likely need to happen. Either Ether-specific catalysts — accelerating ETF inflows, a major network upgrade driving fee revenue and burn, or a breakout in DeFi and stablecoin activity — would need to attract fresh institutional demand specifically for ETH. Or Bitcoin would need to stall at a key resistance level long enough for capital to rotate into higher-beta assets, as has happened in previous cycle phases.
Neither condition is clearly in place right now. Bitcoin is holding above $80,000 with continued ETF support, the CLARITY Act's progress through the Senate Banking Committee this week is primarily a Bitcoin and broad digital asset story rather than an Ether-specific catalyst, and Ether's own ETF flows have been modest at best.
Until the ratio can reclaim and hold above the 200-week moving average at 0.04828 — a level nearly 70% above current prices — the long-term bearish trend for Ether relative to Bitcoin remains firmly intact.