Recent token mechanics dissected:
The playbook is getting predictable:
1. Pump FDV sky-high
2. Create massive paper gains for presale/early rounds
3. Lock actual circulating supply through vesting, bonus locks, delayed unlocks
Seen this with $LAB $STO $RAVE - all variations of the same game. Either manipulating KOL rounds or accumulating chips quietly. Pattern: sudden lockup rule changes → force market hedging → team wallets dump at tops into CEX.
$BILL sitting at $2B mcap right now. Key observations:
- No single-day 100%+ wicks yet
- Hasn't hit the $10B+ threshold (critical zone based on past cycles)
- Probably not done running
Three plays for $BILL:
1. Stay away completely
2. Buy dips, exit on first 100%+ daily wick
3. Wait and watch for $10B mcap signal
Best advice? Don't hedge these. Either you're in or you're out. Half-measures get rekt in this meta.