$BTC has recovered above $80K as ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86K keep conviction below prior bull phases.

Executive Summary

– US spot ETF inflows have turned firmly positive as BTC recovered from mid-$60Ks to low-$80Ks

– Shallow drawdown: Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% in February, now compressed to 8%; bear regime stays shallow if $60K holds

– Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change back to $2.8B/month, but well below the $10B+ seen in prior bull expansions

– Support at $76.9K (30-day cost basis), resistance at $86.9K (Nov-Feb accumulation range)

– Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks

– Hyperliquid traders steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices

– Implied volatility falling across the curve, led by the front end, as realized vol trends lower

– Downside hedging demand fading, options structure more balanced around $80K #etf